Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Algeciras to win @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlgeciras to win ✓60% · @1.83
Double chanceAlgeciras or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:45 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Algeciras v Rayo Majadahonda in the Primera División RFEF Group 2, played at Estadio Nuevo Mirador. In the table, Algeciras are 13th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Rayo Majadahonda are 19th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Current form
Algeciras, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Juventud Torremolinos, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Rayo Majadahonda, last 5: LWDLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Europa Fc, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Algeciras 2.0 xG, Rayo Majadahonda 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Algeciras 60%, draw 26%, Rayo Majadahonda 14%.
Lower-risk option: Algeciras or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Algeciras to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Algeciras or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Algeciras 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Algeciras60%fair 1.67 · @1.83
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.10
Rayo Majadahonda14%fair 7.09 · @3.90
2.90Expected goals
1.99Algeciras xG
0.91Rayo Majadahonda xG
55%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Algeciras 2.0 – 0.9 Rayo Majadahonda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Algeciras to win✓
60%
1.67
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Algeciras or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Algeciras (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Algeciras -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Algeciras to score first✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Algeciras ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Algeciras / FT Algeciras✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Algeciras – last 6
WDLLLD
26 Sep
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Águilas
1–1
D
11 Sep
@ Gimnastic
2–4
L
4 Sep
@ Villarreal II
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs FC Cartagena
1–3
L
1 Aug
vs Tottenham Hotspur U21
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Rayo Majadahonda – last 6
LWDLLW
27 Sep
@ Europa Fc
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Teruel
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs FC Cartagena
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Ibiza
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Villarreal II
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Gimnástica Segoviana
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Algeciras and Rayo Majadahonda.
What is the prediction for Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda?
Our pick is Algeciras or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda?
On our numbers Algeciras have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Rayo Majadahonda 14%.
How many goals will there be in Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda?
Our predicted score is Algeciras 1–0 Rayo Majadahonda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda?
Algeciras vs Rayo Majadahonda (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
