Value bet: Castellón II to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlcoyano to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.33
Castellón II vs Alcoyano: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Castellón II v Alcoyano in the Segunda División RFEF Group 3. In the table, Castellón II are 3rd, among the top four, on 18 points after 9 matches; Alcoyano are 7th (upper half) with 14.
Current form
Castellón II, last 5: LLWDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Terrassa, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Alcoyano, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cieza, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alcoyano, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Castellón II.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Castellón II 1.2 xG, Alcoyano 1.3 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Castellón II 37%, draw 24%, Alcoyano 39%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Castellón II to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (55%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Castellón II 1–1 Alcoyano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Castellón II37%fair 2.69 · @3.10
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @2.90
Alcoyano39%fair 2.59 · @2.20
2.50Expected goals
1.23Castellón II xG
1.27Alcoyano xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
0–08%
1–28%
2–18%
From our goals model: Castellón II 1.2 – 1.3 Alcoyano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcoyano to win✗
39%
2.59
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.75
Draw no bet
Alcoyano (draw no bet)✗
51%
1.96
–
Asian handicap
Castellón II +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Alcoyano to score first✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcoyano / FT Alcoyano✗
21%
4.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.33
–
Recent results
Castellón II – last 6
LLWDLL
6 Sep
vs Terrassa
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Intercity
1–2
L
29 Aug
@ Reddis
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Teruel
0–0
D
17 May
@ SD Logroñés
0–1
L
10 May
vs SD Logroñés
2–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alcoyano – last 6
DWWDDW
5 Sep
vs Cieza
1–1
D
14 Aug
vs Hércules
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ La Nucía
2–1
W
17 May
@ SS Reyes
1–1
D
3 May
@ Porreres
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Sant Andreu
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Castellón II and Alcoyano.
What is the prediction for Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
On our numbers Castellón II have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alcoyano 39%.
How many goals will there be in Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
Our predicted score is Castellón II 1–1 Alcoyano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Castellón II vs Alcoyano?
Castellón II vs Alcoyano (Segunda División RFEF Group 3) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
