Estepona 59%Draw 24%Ciudad de Lucena 17%Expected goals 1.79 – 0.85
83%
Betarazi pick
Estepona or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Estepona to win @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEstepona to win ✗59% · @1.91
Double chanceEstepona or draw ✓83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
18:00 WAT, Saturday 24 October: Estepona v Ciudad de Lucena in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4. In the table, Estepona are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Ciudad de Lucena are 3rd (among the top four) with 19.
Current form
Estepona, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Marbella, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Ciudad de Lucena, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Xerez, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estepona 1.8 xG, Ciudad de Lucena 0.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estepona 59%, draw 24%, Ciudad de Lucena 17%.
Lower-risk option: Estepona or draw (83%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Estepona to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Estepona or draw (83%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estepona 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estepona59%fair 1.70 · @1.91
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.00
Ciudad de Lucena17%fair 6.02 · @3.80
2.64Expected goals
1.79Estepona xG
0.85Ciudad de Lucena xG
54%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
0–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: Estepona 1.8 – 0.8 Ciudad de Lucena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estepona to win✗
59%
1.70
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Estepona or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.91
Draw no bet
Estepona (draw no bet)
78%
1.28
–
Asian handicap
Ciudad de Lucena +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Estepona to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Estepona ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estepona / FT Estepona✗
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.29
–
Recent results
Estepona – last 6
DWWLWL
18 Oct
@ Marbella
0–0
D
11 Oct
vs Atlético Central
3–2
W
3 Oct
vs Don Benito
3–1
W
27 Sep
@ Tenerife II
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Puente Genil
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Linares Deportivo
1–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Ciudad de Lucena – last 6
WWWWLD
18 Oct
@ Xerez
1–0
W
11 Oct
vs Don Benito
4–2
W
4 Oct
vs Puente Genil
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Antoniano
3–0
W
20 Sep
vs Tenerife II
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Mijas Las Lagunas
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estepona and Ciudad de Lucena.
What is the prediction for Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our pick is Estepona or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
On our numbers Estepona have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ciudad de Lucena 17%.
How many goals will there be in Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Our predicted score is Estepona 1–0 Ciudad de Lucena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Estepona vs Ciudad de Lucena (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
