Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
Picks by market
ResultXerez to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceXerez or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓55% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓23% · fair 4.42
Xerez vs Marbella: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 25 October the Segunda División RFEF Group 4 brings Xerez against Marbella. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Xerez are 6th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Marbella are 15th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Xerez, last 5: LDWLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Ciudad de Lucena, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Marbella, last 5: DLLDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Estepona, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Xerez 1.4 xG, Marbella 0.4 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Xerez 62%, draw 24%, Marbella 14%.
Lower-risk option: Xerez or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: NG (55%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Xerez to win (62%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.61, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Xerez 1–0 Marbella. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Xerez62%fair 1.61 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @2.90
Marbella14%fair 7.29 · @4.33
1.79Expected goals
1.35Xerez xG
0.44Marbella xG
45%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–023%
0–017%
2–015%
1–110%
0–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Xerez 1.4 – 0.4 Marbella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Xerez to win✓
62%
1.61
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Xerez or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.18
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Draw no bet
Xerez (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Xerez -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Xerez to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Xerez / FT Xerez✗
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
23%
4.42
–
Recent results
Xerez – last 6
LDWLDL
18 Oct
vs Ciudad de Lucena
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ Real Betis II
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Tenerife II
2–1
W
27 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Don Benito
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Badajoz
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Marbella – last 6
DLLDWL
18 Oct
vs Estepona
0–0
D
11 Oct
@ Badajoz
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs Real Betis II
0–2
L
27 Sep
@ Puente Genil
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Atlético Central
4–1
W
13 Sep
@ Sevilla Atletico
0–3
L
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xerez and Marbella.
Our pick is Xerez to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Xerez vs Marbella?
On our numbers Xerez have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Marbella 14%.
How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Marbella?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xerez vs Marbella?
Our predicted score is Xerez 1–0 Marbella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Xerez vs Marbella?
Xerez vs Marbella (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 25 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
