Value bet: CF Talavera to win @ 3.70 – our chance 32% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNumancia to win ✗43% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 14.78
Numancia vs CF Talavera: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
CF Talavera travel to face Numancia on Sunday 18 October in the Segunda División RFEF Group 5 – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Numancia are 1st, leading the league, on 19 points after 10 matches; CF Talavera are 8th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Numancia, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Real Ávila, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
CF Talavera, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Atlético Paso, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Numancia 1.0 xG, CF Talavera 0.8 xG – a total near 1.8. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 72%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Numancia 43%, draw 25%, CF Talavera 32%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.15.
Price worth noting: CF Talavera to win @3.70 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 2.15 – longer than our fair 1.97, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Numancia 1–1 CF Talavera. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Numancia43%fair 2.31 · @2.05
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @2.80
CF Talavera32%fair 3.14 · @3.70
1.83Expected goals
1.02Numancia xG
0.81CF Talavera xG
51%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Numancia 1.0 – 0.8 CF Talavera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Numancia to win✗
43%
2.31
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
2.15 ▲
Draw no bet
Numancia (draw no bet)
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
CF Talavera +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Numancia to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
14.78
–
Recent results
Numancia – last 6
DDWDWW
11 Oct
@ Real Ávila
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Getafe II
0–0
D
27 Sep
vs Guadalajara
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ SS Reyes
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs A Madrid III
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Atlético Paso
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
CF Talavera – last 6
WWWDDD
11 Oct
vs Atlético Paso
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ Albacete II
4–0
W
27 Sep
vs Real Valladolid II
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Getafe II
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Real Madrid III
0–0
D
9 Sep
vs Navalcarnero
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Numancia and CF Talavera.
What is the prediction for Numancia vs CF Talavera?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.15.
Who will win Numancia vs CF Talavera?
On our numbers Numancia have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and CF Talavera 32%.
How many goals will there be in Numancia vs CF Talavera?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Numancia vs CF Talavera?
Our predicted score is Numancia 1–1 CF Talavera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Numancia vs CF Talavera?
Numancia vs CF Talavera (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
