Value bet: Real Madrid III to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultRSD Alcalá to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.19
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.88
RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
RSD Alcalá welcome Real Madrid III for a Segunda División RFEF Group 5 fixture on Sunday 18 October (11:00 WAT). In the table, RSD Alcalá are 13th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Real Madrid III are 11th (lower half) with 11. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
RSD Alcalá, last 5: DLLWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Calvo Sotelo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Real Madrid III, last 5: DDLLD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Atlético Tordesillas, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours RSD Alcalá, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.7 for Real Madrid III.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give RSD Alcalá 1.2 xG, Real Madrid III 0.9 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 66%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – RSD Alcalá 45%, draw 23%, Real Madrid III 32%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Real Madrid III to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 1.91). Most likely score in line with that pick: RSD Alcalá 1–1 Real Madrid III. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
RSD Alcalá45%fair 2.23 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Real Madrid III32%fair 3.14 · @3.50
2.08Expected goals
1.17RSD Alcalá xG
0.91Real Madrid III xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–015%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: RSD Alcalá 1.2 – 0.9 Real Madrid III expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
RSD Alcalá to win✗
45%
2.23
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
77%
1.30
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.91
Draw no bet
RSD Alcalá (draw no bet)
58%
1.71
–
Asian handicap
Real Madrid III +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
62%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
RSD Alcalá to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT RSD Alcalá / FT RSD Alcalá✗
24%
4.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.88
–
Recent results
RSD Alcalá – last 6
DLLWLW
11 Oct
@ Calvo Sotelo
0–0
D
4 Oct
vs Navalcarnero
1–3
L
27 Sep
@ Salamanca UDS
0–3
L
20 Sep
vs Gimnástica Segoviana
5–2
W
13 Sep
@ Guadalajara
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs CF Talavera
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Real Madrid III – last 6
DDLLDD
11 Oct
vs Atlético Tordesillas
0–0
D
7 Oct
vs Guadalajara
1–1
D
3 Oct
@ Atlético Paso
0–1
L
27 Sep
@ A Madrid III
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ CF Talavera
0–0
D
6 Sep
vs Albacete II
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between RSD Alcalá and Real Madrid III.
What is the prediction for RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
On our numbers RSD Alcalá have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Madrid III 32%.
How many goals will there be in RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
Our predicted score is RSD Alcalá 1–1 Real Madrid III, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III?
RSD Alcalá vs Real Madrid III (Segunda División RFEF Group 5) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
