FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 10 October the Bundesliga brings FSV Mainz 05 against Bayer Leverkusen at MEWA Arena. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, FSV Mainz 05 are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 9 matches; Bayer Leverkusen are 5th (upper half) with 16.
Current form
FSV Mainz 05, last 5: WWLWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Waldhof Mannheim, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.7 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Bayer Leverkusen, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over RB Leipzig, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.7 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FSV Mainz 05 1.8 xG, Bayer Leverkusen 2.1 xG – a total near 3.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 74% and GG at 71%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FSV Mainz 05 33%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 46%.
GG/NG: GG (71%) at 1.40.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (71%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FSV Mainz 0533%fair 3.07 · @2.88
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.60
Bayer Leverkusen46%fair 2.15 · @2.20
3.88Expected goals
1.76FSV Mainz 05 xG
2.12Bayer Leverkusen xG
71%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–28%
1–18%
2–27%
2–17%
1–36%
2–35%
From our goals model: FSV Mainz 05 1.8 – 2.1 Bayer Leverkusen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bayer Leverkusen to win✓
46%
2.15
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
71%
1.42
1.40
Draw no bet
Bayer Leverkusen (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
FSV Mainz 05 +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
–
First team to score
Bayer Leverkusen to score first
53%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Bayer Leverkusen ahead at half-time✗
37%
2.67
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bayer Leverkusen / FT Bayer Leverkusen✗
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.26
–
Recent results
FSV Mainz 05 – last 6
WWLWDW
3 Oct
@ Waldhof Mannheim
3–0
W
19 Sep
@ Borussia Mönchengladbach
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
1–3
L
6 Sep
@ Hamburger SV
5–0
W
29 Aug
vs SC Paderborn 07
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Krieschow
9–0
W
3.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen – last 6
WWDWLW
20 Sep
vs RB Leipzig
2–0
W
16 Sep
vs Celje
2–0
W
12 Sep
@ FC Augsburg
2–2
D
5 Sep
vs Union Berlin
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ SV Elversberg
2–3
L
22 Aug
@ SV Wehen
4–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen.
What is the prediction for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
On our numbers FSV Mainz 05 have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bayer Leverkusen 46%.
How many goals will there be in FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our predicted score is FSV Mainz 05 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at MEWA Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
