FC Porto 71%Draw 20%Alverca 9%Expected goals 2.02 – 0.67
66%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
Picks by market
ResultFC Porto to win ✓71% · @1.18
Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✓91% · @1.02
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗9% · fair 10.65
FC Porto vs Alverca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alverca travel to face FC Porto on Sunday 9 August in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio do Dragão the venue – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, FC Porto are 1st, leading the league, on 33 points after 11 matches; Alverca are 11th (lower half) with 12. There are 21 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FC Porto, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Torreense, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alverca, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sporting CP B, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Porto 2.0 xG, Alverca 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Porto 71%, draw 20%, Alverca 9%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (66%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.51, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Porto 2–0 Alverca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Porto71%fair 1.40 · @1.18
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @6.20
Alverca9%fair 10.97 · @17.00
2.69Expected goals
2.02FC Porto xG
0.67Alverca xG
49%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–014%
1–014%
3–09%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: FC Porto 2.0 – 0.7 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Porto to win✓
71%
1.40
1.18
Double chance
FC Porto or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.02
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
1.57
Draw no bet
FC Porto (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
FC Porto -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.55
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.22
First team to score
FC Porto to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
FC Porto ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto✓
45%
2.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–0✗
9%
10.65
–
Recent results
FC Porto – last 6
WWDLDW
1 Aug
vs Torreense
1–0
W
25 Jul
vs Aston Villa
2–1
W
22 Apr
vs Sporting CP
0–0
D
16 Apr
@ Nottingham Forest
0–1
L
9 Apr
vs Nottingham Forest
1–1
D
19 Mar
vs VfB Stuttgart
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
WLWWDD
1 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
1–0
W
25 Jul
@ Mafra
0–1
L
22 Jul
vs Estoril
2–0
W
17 Jul
vs CF Os Belenenses
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Tondela
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Porto and Alverca.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win FC Porto vs Alverca?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Alverca 9%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Alverca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 2–0 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Alverca?
FC Porto vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
