Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.53
FC Porto vs Arouca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:30 WAT, Sunday 23 August: FC Porto v Arouca in the Primeira Liga, played at Estádio do Dragão. In the table, FC Porto are 1st, leading the league, on 33 points after 11 matches; Arouca are 5th (upper half) with 20. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
FC Porto, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Rio Ave, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Arouca, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Moreirense, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (27 Feb 2026) it ended FC Porto 3–1 Arouca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Porto 1.7 xG, Arouca 0.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 48%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Porto 68%, draw 19%, Arouca 13%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FC Porto to win (68%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Porto 1–0 Arouca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Porto68%fair 1.47 · @1.20
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @6.00
Arouca13%fair 7.81 · @12.00
2.25Expected goals
1.72FC Porto xG
0.53Arouca xG
48%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–016%
0–011%
1–110%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: FC Porto 1.7 – 0.5 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is FC Porto to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Porto vs Arouca?
On our numbers FC Porto have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Arouca 13%.
How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is FC Porto 1–0 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is FC Porto vs Arouca?
FC Porto vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
