Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.70 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.70Odds
Picks by market
ResultVitória SC to win ✓63% · @1.70
Double chanceVitória SC or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Vitória SC vs Nacional: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:30 WAT, Sunday 23 August: Vitória SC v Nacional in the Primeira Liga, played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques. In the table, Vitória SC are 14th, lower half, on 9 points after 11 matches; Nacional are 13th (lower half) with 10. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Vitória SC, last 5: LLWDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Sporting CP, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Nacional, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Estoril, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Vitória SC, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Nacional.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Vitória SC 2.1 xG, Nacional 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Vitória SC 63%, draw 21%, Nacional 16%.
Lower-risk option: Vitória SC or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Vitória SC to win (63%, odds 1.70 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitória SC 2–0 Nacional. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Vitória SC63%fair 1.58 · @1.70
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.50
Nacional16%fair 6.43 · @4.60
3.00Expected goals
2.07Vitória SC xG
0.93Nacional xG
59%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Vitória SC 2.1 – 0.9 Nacional expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vitória SC to win✓
63%
1.58
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Vitória SC or draw✓
84%
1.18
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.68
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Vitória SC (draw no bet)✓
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Vitória SC -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Vitória SC to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Vitória SC ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vitória SC / FT Vitória SC✓
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Vitória SC – last 6
LLWDWW
14 Aug
@ Sporting CP
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Arouca
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Chaves
2–0
W
26 Jul
@ Nottingham Forest
1–1
D
24 Jul
@ Al-Ahli Jeddah
3–1
W
18 Jul
vs Academica
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nacional – last 6
WDLDDD
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Santa Clara
2–2
D
23 Jul
@ Estrela
0–2
L
22 Jul
vs Leganes
0–0
D
19 Jul
@ Tondela
1–1
D
18 Jul
vs Leixoes
3–3
D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vitória SC and Nacional.
What is the prediction for Vitória SC vs Nacional?
Our pick is Vitória SC to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Vitória SC vs Nacional?
On our numbers Vitória SC have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nacional 16%.
How many goals will there be in Vitória SC vs Nacional?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vitória SC vs Nacional?
Our predicted score is Vitória SC 2–0 Nacional, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Vitória SC vs Nacional?
Vitória SC vs Nacional (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
