Value bet: Maritimo to win @ 3.25 – our chance 35% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArouca to win ✓42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓8% · fair 11.84
Arouca vs Maritimo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Maritimo travel to face Arouca on Saturday 29 August in the Primeira Liga – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Arouca are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 11 matches; Maritimo are 15th (lower half) with 8. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Arouca, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to FC Porto, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Maritimo, last 5: DWWDD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Academico Viseu, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arouca 1.3 xG, Maritimo 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arouca 42%, draw 23%, Maritimo 35%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Maritimo to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arouca 1–1 Maritimo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arouca42%fair 2.37 · @2.20
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.25
Maritimo35%fair 2.86 · @3.25
2.48Expected goals
1.32Arouca xG
1.17Maritimo xG
59%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.3 – 1.2 Maritimo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arouca to win✓
42%
2.37
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Arouca (draw no bet)✓
55%
1.83
–
Asian handicap
Maritimo +1 (Asian handicap)
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Arouca to score first
49%
2.06
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arouca / FT Arouca✗
23%
4.31
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✓
8%
11.84
–
Recent results
Arouca – last 6
LWWWLD
23 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs Moreirense
4–0
W
8 Aug
@ Guimaraes
1–0
W
1 Aug
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Santa Clara
0–3
L
22 Jul
@ Famalicao
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
0%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Maritimo – last 6
DWWDDW
22 Aug
vs Academico Viseu
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Famalicao
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Casa Pia
1–0
W
29 Jul
vs Estrela
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Machico
0–0
D
22 Jul
vs Camacha
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arouca and Maritimo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Arouca vs Maritimo?
On our numbers Arouca have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Maritimo 35%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Maritimo?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Maritimo?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Maritimo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Maritimo?
Arouca vs Maritimo (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
