Value bet: Moreirense to win @ 3.25 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCasa Pia to win ✗39% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78
Casa Pia vs Moreirense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 30 August the Primeira Liga brings Casa Pia against Moreirense at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Casa Pia are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Moreirense are 9th (upper half) with 14.
Current form
Casa Pia, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to GIL Vicente, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Moreirense, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Arouca, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (1 Mar 2026) it ended Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Casa Pia 1.5 xG, Moreirense 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 47% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Casa Pia 39%, draw 24%, Moreirense 37%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Moreirense to win @3.25 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.48 – longer than our fair 1.40, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Casa Pia39%fair 2.59 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.05
Moreirense37%fair 2.69 · @3.25
2.91Expected goals
1.47Casa Pia xG
1.44Moreirense xG
60%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 1.5 – 1.4 Moreirense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Moreirense 37%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 1–1 Moreirense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Moreirense?
Casa Pia vs Moreirense (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
