Nacional 42%Draw 23%Alverca 35%Expected goals 1.53 – 1.37
59%
Betarazi pick
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.80Odds
1
Value bet: Nacional to win @ 2.60 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNacional to win ✗42% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.36
Nacional vs Alverca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:30 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Nacional v Alverca in the Primeira Liga. In the table, Nacional are 13th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Alverca are 11th (lower half) with 12. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Nacional, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sporting CP, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Alverca, last 5: LDLDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to SC Braga, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nacional 1.5 xG, Alverca 1.4 xG – a total near 2.9. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nacional 42%, draw 23%, Alverca 35%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Nacional to win @2.60 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 42%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.80 – longer than our fair 1.71, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nacional 1–1 Alverca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nacional42%fair 2.40 · @2.60
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.10
Alverca35%fair 2.86 · @2.62
2.90Expected goals
1.53Nacional xG
1.37Alverca xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–08%
1–28%
0–18%
2–06%
From our goals model: Nacional 1.5 – 1.4 Alverca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nacional to win✗
42%
2.40
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
1.80 ▲
Draw no bet
Nacional (draw no bet)✗
54%
1.84
–
Asian handicap
Alverca +1 (Asian handicap)✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
First team to score
Nacional to score first✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nacional / FT Nacional✗
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.36
–
Recent results
Nacional – last 6
LLLWDL
5 Sep
@ Sporting CP
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Estrela
2–3
L
23 Aug
@ Vitória SC
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Estoril
2–0
W
10 Aug
@ Santa Clara
2–2
D
23 Jul
@ Estrela
0–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Alverca – last 6
LDLDLW
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
22 Aug
@ Sporting CP
1–3
L
15 Aug
vs Estrela
2–2
D
9 Aug
@ FC Porto
0–2
L
1 Aug
vs Sporting CP B
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nacional and Alverca.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Nacional vs Alverca?
On our numbers Nacional have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Alverca 35%.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Alverca?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nacional vs Alverca?
Our predicted score is Nacional 1–1 Alverca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Nacional vs Alverca?
Nacional vs Alverca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
