Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Estrela to win @ 3.40 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultArouca to win ✓45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.08
Arouca vs Estrela: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arouca welcome Estrela for a Primeira Liga fixture on Sunday 11 October (20:30 WAT). In the table, Arouca are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 11 matches; Estrela are 12th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Arouca, last 5: DLDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Sporting CP, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Estrela, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Academico Viseu, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (19 Apr 2026) it ended Arouca 1–0 Estrela.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Arouca 1.8 xG, Estrela 1.5 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Arouca 45%, draw 22%, Estrela 33%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Estrela to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (61%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arouca 1–1 Estrela. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Arouca45%fair 2.20 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.40
Estrela33%fair 3.02 · @3.40
3.21Expected goals
1.75Arouca xG
1.46Estrela xG
61%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
2–27%
2–06%
From our goals model: Arouca 1.8 – 1.5 Estrela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Arouca vs Estrela?
On our numbers Arouca have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Estrela 33%.
How many goals will there be in Arouca vs Estrela?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arouca vs Estrela?
Our predicted score is Arouca 1–1 Estrela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Arouca vs Estrela?
Arouca vs Estrela (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
