Benfica vs Vitória SC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Vitória SC travel to face Benfica on Sunday 11 October in the Primeira Liga, with Estádio da Luz the venue – the ball rolls at 18:00 WAT. In the table, Benfica are 2nd, among the top four, on 28 points after 11 matches; Vitória SC are 14th (lower half) with 9. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Benfica, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to FC Porto, away. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Vitória SC, last 5: DLDLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Moreirense, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.8 for Vitória SC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benfica 2.3 xG, Vitória SC 0.7 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benfica 74%, draw 17%, Vitória SC 9%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.91.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (51%, odds 1.91). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benfica 2–1 Vitória SC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benfica74%fair 1.35 · @1.18
Draw17%fair 5.74 · @6.50
Vitória SC9%fair 11.48 · @13.00
3.00Expected goals
2.32Benfica xG
0.68Vitória SC xG
51%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–013%
1–012%
3–010%
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Benfica 2.3 – 0.7 Vitória SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
74%
1.35
1.18
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.91
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)✓
89%
1.12
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Benfica to score first✓
74%
1.36
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
54%
1.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
50%
2.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.98
–
Recent results
Benfica – last 6
LWWWWW
20 Sep
@ FC Porto
1–3
L
16 Sep
@ AC Milan
2–0
W
13 Sep
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Moreirense
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Estoril
2–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Vitória SC – last 6
DLDLWL
20 Sep
vs Moreirense
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Academico Viseu
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Casa Pia
0–0
D
31 Aug
@ SC Braga
0–1
L
23 Aug
vs Nacional
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Sporting CP
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Vitória SC.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Benfica vs Vitória SC?
On our numbers Benfica have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Vitória SC 9%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Vitória SC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Our predicted score is Benfica 2–1 Vitória SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Vitória SC?
Benfica vs Vitória SC (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
