Casa Pia 13%Draw 24%Santa Clara 64%Expected goals 0.66 – 1.77
87%
Betarazi pick
Santa Clara or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.14 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Santa Clara to win @ 1.85 – our chance 64% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultSanta Clara to win ✓64% · @1.85
Double chanceSanta Clara or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.00
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Santa Clara travel to face Casa Pia on Saturday 10 October in the Primeira Liga, with Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Casa Pia are 16th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Santa Clara are 4th (among the top four) with 21. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Casa Pia, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Estoril, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Santa Clara, last 5: DWWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with SC Braga, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Santa Clara, collecting 2.3 points per game to 0.7 for Casa Pia.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Casa Pia 0.7 xG, Santa Clara 1.8 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Casa Pia 13%, draw 24%, Santa Clara 64%.
Lower-risk option: Santa Clara or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Santa Clara to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Santa Clara or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.14, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Casa Pia13%fair 7.96 · @4.20
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.20
Santa Clara64%fair 1.57 · @1.85
2.43Expected goals
0.66Casa Pia xG
1.77Santa Clara xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–116%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–09%
0–38%
From our goals model: Casa Pia 0.7 – 1.8 Santa Clara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santa Clara to win✓
64%
1.57
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Santa Clara or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Santa Clara (draw no bet)✓
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Santa Clara -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Santa Clara to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Santa Clara ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santa Clara / FT Santa Clara✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.00
–
Recent results
Casa Pia – last 6
WLDLLL
20 Sep
@ Estoril
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs FC Porto
1–4
L
6 Sep
@ Vitória SC
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Moreirense
0–1
L
24 Aug
@ GIL Vicente
0–2
L
17 Aug
vs Benfica
0–7
L
0.5Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Santa Clara – last 6
DWWDWW
20 Sep
vs SC Braga
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Arouca
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Rio Ave
4–0
W
29 Aug
@ Alverca
1–1
D
23 Aug
vs Famalicao
1–0
W
15 Aug
@ Academico Viseu
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Casa Pia and Santa Clara.
What is the prediction for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our pick is Santa Clara or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
On our numbers Casa Pia have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santa Clara 64%.
How many goals will there be in Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Our predicted score is Casa Pia 0–1 Santa Clara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Casa Pia vs Santa Clara?
Casa Pia vs Santa Clara (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Rio Maior.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
