Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
2
Value bet: Arouca to win @ 3.30 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlverca to win ✗44% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.13
Alverca vs Arouca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Arouca travel to face Alverca on Saturday 24 October in the Primeira Liga, with FC Alverca Sports Complex the venue – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Alverca are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Arouca are 5th (upper half) with 20.
Current form
Alverca, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Tondela, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Arouca, last 5: DWDLD Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with CF Os Belenenses, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alverca 1.5 xG, Arouca 1.2 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 62%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alverca 44%, draw 23%, Arouca 32%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Arouca to win @3.30 – the bookmaker implies 30%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.67 – longer than our fair 1.62, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alverca 1–1 Arouca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alverca44%fair 2.25 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.10
Arouca32%fair 3.10 · @3.30
2.69Expected goals
1.48Alverca xG
1.21Arouca xG
62%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
2–07%
1–27%
From our goals model: Alverca 1.5 – 1.2 Arouca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alverca to win✗
44%
2.25
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.67
Draw no bet
Alverca (draw no bet)✗
58%
1.73
–
Asian handicap
Arouca +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Alverca to score first✗
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.37
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alverca / FT Alverca✗
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.13
–
Recent results
Alverca – last 6
DWWWLD
18 Oct
@ Tondela
0–0
D
12 Oct
@ Famalicao
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
5 Sep
vs SC Braga
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Santa Clara
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Arouca – last 6
DWDLDW
18 Oct
@ CF Os Belenenses
3–3
D
11 Oct
vs Estrela
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Sporting CP
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Santa Clara
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Estoril
0–0
D
29 Aug
vs Maritimo
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Arouca.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Alverca vs Arouca?
On our numbers Alverca have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Arouca 32%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Arouca?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Arouca?
Our predicted score is Alverca 1–1 Arouca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Arouca?
Alverca vs Arouca (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
