Estrela 64%Draw 22%Casa Pia 14%Expected goals 2.15 – 0.91
86%
Betarazi pick
Estrela or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Estrela to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultEstrela to win ✗64% · @1.75
Double chanceEstrela or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Estrela vs Casa Pia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 24 October the Primeira Liga brings Estrela against Casa Pia. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Estrela are 12th, lower half, on 10 points after 11 matches; Casa Pia are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Estrela, last 5: WLLDW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fazendense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Casa Pia, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Alpendorada, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Head to head
When they last met (18 Jul 2026) it ended Estrela 1–2 Casa Pia. The last 2 head-to-heads: Estrela 1 win, Casa Pia 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Estrela 2.1 xG, Casa Pia 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Estrela 64%, draw 22%, Casa Pia 14%.
Lower-risk option: Estrela or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Estrela to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 64%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Estrela or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Estrela 2–0 Casa Pia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Estrela64%fair 1.55 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.40
Casa Pia14%fair 7.36 · @4.50
3.06Expected goals
2.15Estrela xG
0.91Casa Pia xG
54%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Estrela 2.1 – 0.9 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Estrela or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Estrela have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Casa Pia 14%.
How many goals will there be in Estrela vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Estrela 2–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Estrela vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
