Alverca 60%Draw 21%Casa Pia 19%Expected goals 1.69 – 0.80
81%
Betarazi pick
Alverca or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Alverca to win @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlverca to win ✗60% · @1.83
Double chanceAlverca or draw ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.56
Alverca vs Casa Pia: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 7 November the Primeira Liga brings Alverca against Casa Pia at FC Alverca Sports Complex. Kick-off: 19:00 WAT. In the table, Alverca are 11th, lower half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Casa Pia are 16th (in the drop zone) with 8.
Current form
Alverca, last 5: LLDWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Benfica, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Casa Pia, last 5: LWWLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Sporting CP, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alverca 1.7 xG, Casa Pia 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alverca 60%, draw 21%, Casa Pia 19%.
Lower-risk option: Alverca or draw (81%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Alverca to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Alverca or draw (81%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alverca60%fair 1.67 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.50
Casa Pia19%fair 5.32 · @4.20
2.49Expected goals
1.69Alverca xG
0.80Casa Pia xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Alverca 1.7 – 0.8 Casa Pia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alverca to win✗
60%
1.67
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Alverca or draw✓
81%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Alverca (draw no bet)
76%
1.31
–
Asian handicap
Casa Pia +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Alverca to score first✗
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alverca / FT Alverca✗
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.56
–
Recent results
Alverca – last 6
LLDWWW
2 Nov
@ Benfica
0–1
L
24 Oct
vs Arouca
0–1
L
18 Oct
@ Tondela
0–0
D
12 Oct
@ Famalicao
4–1
W
19 Sep
vs Rio Ave
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Nacional
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Casa Pia – last 6
LWWLWL
30 Oct
vs Sporting CP
0–2
L
24 Oct
@ Estrela
2–0
W
18 Oct
@ Alpendorada
1–0
W
10 Oct
vs Santa Clara
0–1
L
20 Sep
@ Estoril
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs FC Porto
1–4
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alverca and Casa Pia.
Our pick is Alverca or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alverca vs Casa Pia?
On our numbers Alverca have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Casa Pia 19%.
How many goals will there be in Alverca vs Casa Pia?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Our predicted score is Alverca 1–0 Casa Pia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Alverca vs Casa Pia?
Alverca vs Casa Pia (Primeira Liga) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
