Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.55 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.55Odds
1
Value bet: Holywell to win @ 2.90 – our chance 41% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHolywell to win ✗41% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.90
Holywell vs Trefelin: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Friday 4 September the Premier League brings Holywell against Trefelin at Bartons North Wales Stadium. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Holywell are 16th, in the drop zone, on 2 points after 15 matches; Trefelin are 15th (in the drop zone) with 6.
Current form
Holywell, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 2–6 defeat to Airbus UK, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 4.3 conceded per game.
Trefelin, last 5: LDLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Haverfordwest County AFC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Holywell 1.9 xG, Trefelin 1.9 xG – a total near 3.8. That is an open game on paper: 67% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Holywell 41%, draw 20%, Trefelin 39%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.45.
Price worth noting: Holywell to win @2.90 – the bookmaker implies 34%, our ratings say 41%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.50, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Holywell 2–1 Trefelin. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Holywell41%fair 2.44 · @2.90
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.65
Trefelin39%fair 2.56 · @2.05
3.81Expected goals
1.93Holywell xG
1.88Trefelin xG
65%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–18%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
3–15%
1–35%
From our goals model: Holywell 1.9 – 1.9 Trefelin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Holywell to win✗
41%
2.44
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.45
Draw no bet
Holywell (draw no bet)
51%
1.95
–
Asian handicap
Trefelin +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.53
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.22
First team to score
Holywell to score first
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
34%
2.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Holywell / FT Holywell✗
25%
4.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.90
–
Recent results
Holywell – last 6
LLLLLL
31 Aug
@ Airbus UK
2–6
L
28 Aug
vs Caernarfon Town
3–5
L
21 Aug
vs Barry Town
1–3
L
14 Aug
@ Llandudno
1–3
L
7 Aug
vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
1–3
L
1 Aug
@ Cardiff MET
1–6
L
1.5Scored / game
4.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Trefelin – last 6
LDLLLL
31 Aug
@ Haverfordwest County AFC
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Ammanford AFC
1–1
D
21 Aug
vs Caernarfon Town
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ GAP Connah S Quay FC
0–6
L
7 Aug
vs Llandudno
0–4
L
31 Jul
@ Colwyn Bay
0–2
L
0.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Holywell and Trefelin.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Holywell vs Trefelin?
On our numbers Holywell have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Trefelin 39%.
How many goals will there be in Holywell vs Trefelin?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Holywell vs Trefelin?
Our predicted score is Holywell 2–1 Trefelin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is Holywell vs Trefelin?
Holywell vs Trefelin (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bartons North Wales Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
