FC St. Pauli 57%Draw 24%1. FC Kaiserslautern 19%Expected goals 1.53 – 0.73
81%
Betarazi pick
FC St. Pauli or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.25 – our chance 51% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFC St. Pauli to win ✗57% · @1.85
Double chanceFC St. Pauli or draw ✗81% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.22
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:30 WAT, Sunday 30 August: FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Kaiserslautern in the 2. Bundesliga, played at Millerntor-Stadion. In the table, FC St. Pauli are 9th, upper half, on 12 points after 11 matches; 1. FC Kaiserslautern are 3rd (among the top four) with 21.
Current form
FC St. Pauli, last 5: LDDDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Rot-Weiß Essen, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
1. FC Kaiserslautern, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Waldhof Mannheim, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC St. Pauli 1.5 xG, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC St. Pauli 57%, draw 24%, 1. FC Kaiserslautern 19%.
Lower-risk option: FC St. Pauli or draw (81%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.25 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was FC St. Pauli or draw (81%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC St. Pauli 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC St. Pauli57%fair 1.74 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.16 · @3.70
1. FC Kaiserslautern19%fair 5.37 · @3.85
2.26Expected goals
1.53FC St. Pauli xG
0.731. FC Kaiserslautern xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: FC St. Pauli 1.5 – 0.7 1. FC Kaiserslautern expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC St. Pauli to win✗
57%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Double chance
FC St. Pauli or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.53
Draw no bet
FC St. Pauli (draw no bet)✗
75%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
1. FC Kaiserslautern +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
2.25 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.50 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.20
First team to score
FC St. Pauli to score first✗
61%
1.65
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC St. Pauli / FT FC St. Pauli✗
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.22
–
Recent results
FC St. Pauli – last 6
LDDDLW
23 Aug
@ Rot-Weiß Essen
0–2
L
14 Aug
@ Holstein Kiel
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–2
D
24 Jul
@ Bournemouth
1–4
L
19 Jul
vs HNK Gorica
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
1. FC Kaiserslautern – last 6
DDDWDL
21 Aug
@ Waldhof Mannheim
0–0
D
15 Aug
vs Karlsruher SC
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ VfL Wolfsburg
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Metz
3–1
W
25 Jul
@ Sudtirol
0–0
D
17 Jul
@ FSV Mainz 05
1–4
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
What is the prediction for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our pick is FC St. Pauli or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
On our numbers FC St. Pauli have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and 1. FC Kaiserslautern 19%.
How many goals will there be in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
Our predicted score is FC St. Pauli 1–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Millerntor-Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
