FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC Prediction & Expected Goals (11 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFC St. Pauli to win ✓60% · @1.70

Double chanceFC St. Pauli or draw ✓81% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.44

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.09

FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

12:30 WAT, Sunday 11 October: FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC in the 2. Bundesliga, played at Millerntor-Stadion. In the table, FC St. Pauli are 9th, upper half, on 12 points after 11 matches; Karlsruher SC are 16th (in the drop zone) with 11. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

FC St. Pauli, last 5: DDWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Borussia Mönchengladbach, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Karlsruher SC, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over SV Wehen, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FC St. Pauli 1.9 xG, Karlsruher SC 0.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 63%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – FC St. Pauli 60%, draw 21%, Karlsruher SC 19%.
Lower-risk option: FC St. Pauli or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.44.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was FC St. Pauli or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC St. Pauli 1–0 Karlsruher SC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FC St. Pauli60%fair 1.66 · @1.70

Draw21%fair 4.81 · @4.00

Karlsruher SC19%fair 5.23 · @4.00

2.83Expected goals

1.88FC St. Pauli xG

0.95Karlsruher SC xG

63%Both score

54%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–011%

1–111%

2–010%

2–110%

3–07%

3–16%

From our goals model: FC St. Pauli 1.9 – 0.9 Karlsruher SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	FC St. Pauli to win ✓	60%	1.66	1.70
Double chance	FC St. Pauli or draw ✓	81%	1.24	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	63%	1.59	1.44
Draw no bet	FC St. Pauli (draw no bet) ✓	76%	1.32	–
Asian handicap	Karlsruher SC +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	77%	1.29	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	54%	1.86	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	69%	1.46	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	–
First team to score	FC St. Pauli to score first ✓	63%	1.60	–
Half-time result	FC St. Pauli ahead at half-time ✓	43%	2.32	–
Half-time / full-time	HT FC St. Pauli / FT FC St. Pauli ✓	37%	2.68	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.09	–

FC St. Pauli – last 6

DDWDLL

3 Oct	vs Borussia Mönchengladbach	1–1	D
20 Sep	@ Energie Cottbus	1–1	D
12 Sep	vs VfL Wolfsburg	1–0	W
4 Sep	@ Arminia Bielefeld	2–2	D
30 Aug	vs 1. FC Kaiserslautern	1–2	L
23 Aug	@ Rot-Weiß Essen	0–2	L

1.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Karlsruher SC – last 6

WLLDLW

2 Oct	@ SV Wehen	2–1	W
19 Sep	vs 1. FC Nürnberg	0–1	L
13 Sep	vs Energie Cottbus	0–3	L
4 Sep	@ Hannover 96	2–2	D
29 Aug	vs VfL Wolfsburg	2–5	L
21 Aug	@ Preußen Münster	2–1	W

1.3Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Hertha BSC	11	10	1	0	+16	31
2	1. FC Nürnberg	11	7	3	1	+13	24
3	1. FC Kaiserslautern	11	6	3	2	+3	21
4	1. FC Magdeburg	11	6	2	3	+11	20
5	VfL Wolfsburg	11	5	4	2	+10	19
6	Arminia Bielefeld	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	1. FC Heidenheim	11	4	4	3	-1	16
8	VfL Bochum	11	4	2	5	-2	14
9	FC St. Pauli	11	2	6	3	-3	12
10	SpVgg Greuther Fürth	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Hannover 96	11	3	3	5	-6	12
12	Energie Cottbus	11	2	5	4	-2	11
13	Eintracht Braunschweig	11	3	2	6	-2	11
14	VfL Osnabrück	11	3	2	6	-4	11
15	Dynamo Dresden	11	3	2	6	-5	11
16	Karlsruher SC	11	3	2	6	-9	11
17	SV Darmstadt 98	11	2	3	6	-12	9
18	Holstein Kiel	11	1	5	5	-3	8

Team

Pts

+16

+13

+11

+10

-1

-2

-3

-6

-6

-2

Eintracht Braunschweig

-2

-4

-5

-9

-12

-3

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

Our pick is FC St. Pauli or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

On our numbers FC St. Pauli have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Karlsruher SC 19%.

How many goals will there be in FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

Our predicted score is FC St. Pauli 1–0 Karlsruher SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC (2. Bundesliga) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Millerntor-Stadion.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC: numbers & prediction