Value bet: Tondela to win @ 1.88 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTondela to win ✗57% · @1.88
Double chanceTondela or draw ✗81% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.52
Tondela vs Academica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:15 WAT, Friday 21 August: Tondela v Academica in the Segunda Liga, played at Estádio João Cardoso. In the table, Tondela are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Academica are 6th (upper half) with 16. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tondela, last 5: LWLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Leixoes, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Academica, last 5: WWDDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Feirense, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Academica, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.7 for Tondela.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Jul 2026) it ended Tondela 2–1 Academica.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tondela 1.7 xG, Academica 0.8 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tondela 57%, draw 24%, Academica 19%.
Lower-risk option: Tondela or draw (81%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Tondela to win @1.88 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tondela 1–0 Academica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tondela57%fair 1.75 · @1.88
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.30
Academica19%fair 5.34 · @3.95
2.50Expected goals
1.67Tondela xG
0.84Academica xG
53%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.7 – 0.8 Academica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tondela vs Academica?
On our numbers Tondela have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Academica 19%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Academica?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Academica?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–0 Academica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Academica?
Tondela vs Academica (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Friday 21 August 2026 at 20:15 (West Africa Time) at Estádio João Cardoso.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
