Value bet: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @ 3.55 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAcademica to win ✗45% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.39
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Saturday 29 August: Academica v Lusitânia Lourosa in the Segunda Liga, played at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra. In the table, Academica are 6th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th (among the top four) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Academica, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Tondela, away. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Lusitânia Lourosa, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Torreense, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Academica, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Academica 1.4 xG, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.1 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Academica 45%, draw 24%, Lusitânia Lourosa 30%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Lusitânia Lourosa to win @3.55 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 30%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Academica 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Academica45%fair 2.21 · @2.12
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @2.96
Lusitânia Lourosa30%fair 3.30 · @3.55
2.44Expected goals
1.38Academica xG
1.06Lusitânia Lourosa xG
55%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–09%
2–08%
From our goals model: Academica 1.4 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Academica to win✗
45%
2.21
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.80
1.85
Draw no bet
Academica (draw no bet)✗
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Lusitânia Lourosa +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
First team to score
Academica to score first✗
51%
1.94
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Academica / FT Academica✗
26%
3.89
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.39
–
Recent results
Academica – last 6
WWWDDW
21 Aug
@ Tondela
2–0
W
14 Aug
vs Feirense
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Chaves
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Caldas
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ União Santarém
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ FC Porto B
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lusitânia Lourosa – last 6
DWWLLD
22 Aug
vs Torreense
2–2
D
16 Aug
@ Amarante
1–0
W
10 Aug
vs FC Porto B
2–0
W
1 Aug
@ Paredes
2–4
L
1 Aug
vs Arouca
0–2
L
29 Jul
@ Leça
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Academica and Lusitânia Lourosa.
What is the prediction for Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Academica have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Lusitânia Lourosa 30%.
How many goals will there be in Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Academica 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio EFAPEL Cidade de Coimbra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
