Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Leixoes to win @ 1.85 – our chance 57% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultLeixoes to win ✓57% · @1.85
Double chanceLeixoes or draw ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 5.09
Leixoes vs Amarante: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 6 September the Segunda Liga brings Leixoes against Amarante. Kick-off: 15:30 WAT. In the table, Leixoes are 12th, lower half, on 11 points after 10 matches; Amarante are 14th (lower half) with 9. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Leixoes, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Portimonense, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Amarante, last 5: WDLLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Benfica B, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Leixoes, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Amarante.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leixoes 1.3 xG, Amarante 0.6 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 71%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leixoes 57%, draw 22%, Amarante 21%.
Lower-risk option: Leixoes or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Leixoes to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Leixoes or draw (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leixoes 1–0 Amarante. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leixoes57%fair 1.74 · @1.85
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.10
Amarante21%fair 4.77 · @3.80
1.88Expected goals
1.29Leixoes xG
0.59Amarante xG
46%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–020%
0–015%
2–013%
1–112%
0–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Leixoes 1.3 – 0.6 Amarante expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leixoes to win✓
57%
1.74
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Leixoes or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
1.83
Draw no bet
Leixoes (draw no bet)✓
73%
1.37
–
Asian handicap
Amarante +1 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
First team to score
Leixoes to score first✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leixoes / FT Leixoes✓
31%
3.19
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
5.09
–
Recent results
Leixoes – last 6
WLWLWW
29 Aug
@ Portimonense
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs União de Leiria
2–4
L
16 Aug
vs Tondela
1–0
W
10 Aug
@ Benfica B
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Casa Pia
6–2
W
29 Jul
vs Vizela
3–2
W
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Amarante – last 6
WDLLLL
30 Aug
vs Benfica B
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Vizela
0–0
D
16 Aug
vs Lusitânia Lourosa
0–1
L
8 Aug
@ Tondela
1–2
L
1 Aug
@ Moreirense
0–2
L
22 Jul
@ Chaves
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leixoes and Amarante.
Our pick is Leixoes or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leixoes vs Amarante?
On our numbers Leixoes have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Amarante 21%.
How many goals will there be in Leixoes vs Amarante?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leixoes vs Amarante?
Our predicted score is Leixoes 1–0 Amarante, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Leixoes vs Amarante?
Leixoes vs Amarante (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
