Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 3.00 – our chance 39% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win ✓39% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · fair 1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.52
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Felgueiras 1932 v Penafiel in the Segunda Liga, played at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos. In the table, Felgueiras 1932 are 15th, lower half, on 8 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Felgueiras 1932, last 5: LWDDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Vizela, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Penafiel, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Academica, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (22 Feb 2026) it ended Felgueiras 1932 0–0 Penafiel.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Felgueiras 1932 1.1 xG, Penafiel 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 45%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Felgueiras 1932 37%, draw 25%, Penafiel 39%.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 39%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Either team to win (75%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Felgueiras 1932 0–1 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Felgueiras 193237%fair 2.73 · @2.30
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @2.80
Penafiel39%fair 2.59 · @3.00
2.30Expected goals
1.13Felgueiras 1932 xG
1.17Penafiel xG
45%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Felgueiras 1932 1.1 – 1.2 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 75% chance.
Who will win Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Felgueiras 1932 have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penafiel 39%.
How many goals will there be in Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Felgueiras 1932 0–1 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel?
Felgueiras 1932 vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
