Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Farense to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFarense to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceFarense or draw ✗84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Farense vs Penafiel: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 24 October the Segunda Liga brings Farense against Penafiel. Kick-off: 18:00 WAT. In the table, Farense are 8th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Penafiel are 1st (leading the league) with 22.
Current form
Farense, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over AD Marco 09, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Penafiel, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Leça, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Farense 1.9 xG, Penafiel 0.9 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Farense 59%, draw 25%, Penafiel 16%.
Lower-risk option: Farense or draw (84%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Farense to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Farense or draw (84%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Farense 1–0 Penafiel. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Farense59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 4.07 · @3.10
Penafiel16%fair 6.18 · @3.60
2.86Expected goals
1.93Farense xG
0.93Penafiel xG
52%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
2–011%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Farense 1.9 – 0.9 Penafiel expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Farense to win✗
59%
1.69
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Farense or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.85
Draw no bet
Farense (draw no bet)✗
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Farense -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
–
First team to score
Farense to score first✗
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Farense ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Farense / FT Farense✗
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Recent results
Farense – last 6
WWWWDL
17 Oct
vs AD Marco 09
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Feirense
2–1
W
4 Oct
vs Chaves
4–0
W
20 Sep
@ Sacavenense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ AVS
0–0
D
30 Aug
@ Sporting CP B
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Penafiel – last 6
LLWWWW
17 Oct
vs Leça
0–1
L
9 Oct
vs AVS
1–2
L
19 Sep
@ Oliveirense
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Felgueiras 1932
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs Academica
4–1
W
30 Aug
@ FC Porto B
3–0
W
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Farense and Penafiel.
Our pick is Farense or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Farense vs Penafiel?
On our numbers Farense have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penafiel 16%.
How many goals will there be in Farense vs Penafiel?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Farense vs Penafiel?
Our predicted score is Farense 1–0 Penafiel, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Farense vs Penafiel?
Farense vs Penafiel (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
