Liverpool Montevideo 61%Draw 24%Cerro 15%Expected goals 1.68 – 0.67
78%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✗61% · @1.65
Double chanceLiverpool Montevideo or draw ✗85% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.23
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Cerro travel to face Liverpool Montevideo on Sunday 12 July in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Belvedere the venue – the ball rolls at 16:00 WAT. In the table, Liverpool Montevideo are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 13 matches; Cerro are 9th (lower half) with 18. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Liverpool Montevideo, last 5: DWDLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cerro Largo, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Cerro, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Penarol, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Liverpool Montevideo, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Cerro.
Head to head
When they last met (20 Feb 2026) it ended Cerro 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool Montevideo 1.7 xG, Cerro 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool Montevideo 61%, draw 24%, Cerro 15%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool Montevideo61%fair 1.64 · @1.65
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.40
Cerro15%fair 6.51 · @5.40
2.35Expected goals
1.68Liverpool Montevideo xG
0.67Cerro xG
49%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.7 – 0.7 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+15%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
-31%
+20%
Our expected goals here
1.77
0.67
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool Montevideo to win✗
61%
1.64
1.65
Double chance
Liverpool Montevideo or draw✗
85%
1.18
1.10
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.62
Draw no bet
Liverpool Montevideo (draw no bet)✗
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Liverpool Montevideo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Liverpool Montevideo to score first
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.28
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo✗
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerro 15%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Liverpool Montevideo 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
