Racing Montevideo 31%Draw 29%Penarol 40%Expected goals 1.00 – 1.18
63%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPenarol to win ✗40% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win ✗71% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.72
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Penarol travel to face Racing Montevideo on Sunday 12 July in the Primera División Apertura, with Estadio Osvaldo Roberto the venue – the ball rolls at 22:30 WAT. In the table, Racing Montevideo are 6th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Penarol are 5th (upper half) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Racing Montevideo, last 5: DDDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Central Espanol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Penarol, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Cerro, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (29 Mar 2026) it ended Penarol 1–2 Racing Montevideo.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Racing Montevideo 1.0 xG, Penarol 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Racing Montevideo 31%, draw 29%, Penarol 40%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (63%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Racing Montevideo31%fair 3.22 · @3.00
Draw29%fair 3.50 · @2.98
Penarol40%fair 2.48 · @2.36
2.18Expected goals
1.00Racing Montevideo xG
1.18Penarol xG
52%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Racing Montevideo 1.0 – 1.2 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Racing Montevideo
Penarol
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+9%
+24%
Goals conceded vs average
-12%
-29%
Our expected goals here
0.99
1.16
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
On our numbers Racing Montevideo have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Penarol 40%.
How many goals will there be in Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Racing Montevideo 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Racing Montevideo vs Penarol?
Racing Montevideo vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 12 July 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Osvaldo Roberto.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
