Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.08 – our chance 55% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultNizhny Novgorod to win ✓63% · @1.69
Double chanceNizhny Novgorod or draw ✓85% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @2.08
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26
Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 2 August the First League brings Nizhny Novgorod against Shinnik Yaroslavl at Sovcombank Arena. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Nizhny Novgorod are 1st, leading the league, on 46 points after 17 matches; Shinnik Yaroslavl are 7th (upper half) with 26. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Nizhny Novgorod, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Chelyabinsk, away. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Shinnik Yaroslavl, last 5: DWDDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Torpedo Moskva, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Nizhny Novgorod 2.1 xG, Shinnik Yaroslavl 0.8 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 50% for three or more goals, 55% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Nizhny Novgorod 63%, draw 22%, Shinnik Yaroslavl 15%.
Lower-risk option: Nizhny Novgorod or draw (85%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 2.08.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.08 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Nizhny Novgorod63%fair 1.58 · @1.69
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl15%fair 6.85 · @4.95
2.98Expected goals
2.15Nizhny Novgorod xG
0.83Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
55%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Nizhny Novgorod 2.1 – 0.8 Shinnik Yaroslavl expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Nizhny Novgorod
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Attack vs First League average
+100%
-5%
Goals conceded vs average
-32%
-19%
Our expected goals here
2.40
0.76
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nizhny Novgorod to win✓
63%
1.58
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Nizhny Novgorod or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
2.08 ▲
Draw no bet
Nizhny Novgorod (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Nizhny Novgorod -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
1.63
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.18
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.03
First team to score
Nizhny Novgorod to score first✓
68%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Nizhny Novgorod ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.04
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nizhny Novgorod / FT Nizhny Novgorod✓
44%
2.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.26
–
Recent results
Nizhny Novgorod – last 6
WWWLDL
25 Jul
@ Chelyabinsk
2–1
W
19 Jul
@ KAMAZ
2–1
W
12 Jul
vs Rotor Volgograd
4–2
W
4 Jul
@ Dynamo
1–2
L
17 May
@ Rubin
2–2
D
11 May
vs CSKA Moscow
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
DWDDDW
26 Jul
@ Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
19 Jul
vs Leningradets
2–0
W
12 Jul
vs FC Sochi
2–2
D
30 Jun
@ CSKA Moscow
1–1
D
11 May
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
4 May
@ Ural
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nizhny Novgorod and Shinnik Yaroslavl.
What is the prediction for Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
On our numbers Nizhny Novgorod have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Shinnik Yaroslavl 15%.
How many goals will there be in Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Our predicted score is Nizhny Novgorod 2–0 Shinnik Yaroslavl, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
Nizhny Novgorod vs Shinnik Yaroslavl (First League) kicks off on Sunday 2 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Sovcombank Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
