Value bet: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @ 2.39 – our chance 49% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultShinnik Yaroslavl to win ✗49% · @2.39
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.38
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Shinnik Yaroslavl welcome Arsenal Tula to Stadion Shinnik for a First League fixture on Saturday 8 August (15:00 WAT). In the table, Shinnik Yaroslavl are 7th, upper half, on 26 points after 17 matches; Arsenal Tula are 12th (lower half) with 19.
Current form
Shinnik Yaroslavl, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Nizhny Novgorod, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Arsenal Tula, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Torpedo Moskva, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.7 xG, Arsenal Tula 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Shinnik Yaroslavl 49%, draw 25%, Arsenal Tula 26%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.84.
Price worth noting: Shinnik Yaroslavl to win @2.39 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (71%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Arsenal Tula. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Shinnik Yaroslavl49%fair 2.06 · @2.39
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.10
Arsenal Tula26%fair 3.80 · @2.96
2.64Expected goals
1.66Shinnik Yaroslavl xG
0.98Arsenal Tula xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Shinnik Yaroslavl 1.7 – 1.0 Arsenal Tula expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Shinnik Yaroslavl
Arsenal Tula
Attack vs First League average
-5%
-6%
Goals conceded vs average
-19%
+37%
Our expected goals here
1.93
0.89
Our own ratings from every First League result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Shinnik Yaroslavl to win✗
49%
2.06
2.39 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.84
Draw no bet
Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw no bet)
65%
1.54
–
Asian handicap
Arsenal Tula +1 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.87
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.21
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.04
First team to score
Shinnik Yaroslavl to score first✓
58%
1.71
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Shinnik Yaroslavl / FT Shinnik Yaroslavl✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.38
–
Recent results
Shinnik Yaroslavl – last 6
LDWDDD
2 Aug
@ Nizhny Novgorod
0–3
L
26 Jul
@ Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
19 Jul
vs Leningradets
2–0
W
12 Jul
vs FC Sochi
2–2
D
30 Jun
@ CSKA Moscow
1–1
D
11 May
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Arsenal Tula – last 6
WLLWDD
2 Aug
vs Torpedo Moskva
1–0
W
26 Jul
@ FC Sochi
0–5
L
19 Jul
vs FK Neftekhimik
0–1
L
13 Jul
vs Tekstilshchik
2–1
W
4 Jul
@ CSKA Moscow
1–1
D
26 Jun
@ FC Sochi
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shinnik Yaroslavl and Arsenal Tula.
What is the prediction for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
On our numbers Shinnik Yaroslavl have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Arsenal Tula 26%.
How many goals will there be in Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
Our predicted score is Shinnik Yaroslavl 1–1 Arsenal Tula, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula?
Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula (First League) kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Shinnik.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
