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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Arsenal Tula v Spartak Kostroma: numbers & prediction

First League · Russia · Arsenal Stadium (Tula)

Arsenal Tula

LLDLL
3–2
FT

Spartak Kostroma

LWWWW
Arsenal Tula 35%Draw 23%Spartak Kostroma 42% Expected goals 1.14 – 1.29
69%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.46 · bookmaker 1.34 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.34Odds
2

Value bet: Spartak Kostroma to win @ 2.88 – our chance 42% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultSpartak Kostroma to win ✗42% · @2.88
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.97

Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Spartak Kostroma travel to face Arsenal Tula on Friday 9 October in the First League, with Arsenal Stadium (Tula) the venue – the ball rolls at 17:30 WAT. In the table, Arsenal Tula are 12th, lower half, on 19 points after 17 matches; Spartak Kostroma are 6th (upper half) with 28.

Current form

Arsenal Tula, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to CSKA Moscow, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Spartak Kostroma, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Ural, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Spartak Kostroma, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.3 for Arsenal Tula.

Head to head

When they last met (21 Jun 2026) it ended Arsenal Tula 1–1 Spartak Kostroma.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Arsenal Tula 1.1 xG, Spartak Kostroma 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Arsenal Tula 35%, draw 23%, Spartak Kostroma 42%.
  • GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.87.
  • Price worth noting: Spartak Kostroma to win @2.88 – the bookmaker implies 35%, our ratings say 42%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (69%, odds 1.34). Most likely score in line with that pick: Arsenal Tula 1–1 Spartak Kostroma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Arsenal Tula35%fair 2.88 · @2.42
Draw23%fair 4.28 · @3.08
Spartak Kostroma42%fair 2.39 · @2.88
2.43Expected goals
1.14Arsenal Tula xG
1.29Spartak Kostroma xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–111%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%

From our goals model: Arsenal Tula 1.1 – 1.3 Spartak Kostroma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSpartak Kostroma to win ✗42%2.392.88 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.301.32
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓51%1.951.87
Draw no betSpartak Kostroma (draw no bet) ✗55%1.83–
Asian handicapArsenal Tula +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓60%1.66–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓69%1.461.34
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗57%1.751.61
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77%1.291.17
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗90%1.121.01
First team to scoreSpartak Kostroma to score first48%2.07–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Spartak Kostroma / FT Spartak Kostroma ✗23%4.35–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%11.97–

Recent results

Arsenal Tula – last 6

LLDLLD
4 Oct@ CSKA Moscow1–3L
16 Sep@ Enisey1–3L
13 Sepvs Ska-khabarovsk2–2D
8 Sep@ Tekstilshchik0–1L
5 Sep@ Volga Ulyanovsk0–3L
29 Augvs Ural2–2D
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Spartak Kostroma – last 6

LWWWWW
26 Sepvs Ural1–2L
18 Sep@ Volga Ulyanovsk1–0W
14 Sepvs FK Neftekhimik1–0W
8 Sep@ Ryazan2–0W
5 Sep@ Chelyabinsk1–0W
31 Augvs Rotor Volgograd1–0W
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

21 Jun 2026Arsenal Tula v Spartak Kostroma1–1
Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma head-to-head page →

First League table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Nizhny Novgorod171511+3746
2Ural171043+1834
3Torpedo Moskva17953+1632
4FC Sochi171025+632
5Veles18945+231
6Spartak Kostroma17845+228
7Shinnik Yaroslavl17683+426
8FC UFA17575+222
9Volga Ulyanovsk18648-322
10Rotor Volgograd17566+521
11Chelyabinsk17638-421
12Arsenal Tula17548-1519
13Leningradets17467-1118
14Enisey17458-1417
15Ska-khabarovsk17449-516
16KAMAZ17359-914
17FK Neftekhimik174112-1413
18Tekstilshchik172510-1711

More First League predictions

League hub
FT FK Neftekhimik2 Chelyabinsk4 136%2.49X25%2.86239%2.98 1.1–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 64%@1.44 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.

Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

On our numbers Arsenal Tula have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Spartak Kostroma 42%.

How many goals will there be in Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Our predicted score is Arsenal Tula 1–1 Spartak Kostroma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma?

Arsenal Tula vs Spartak Kostroma (First League) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Arsenal Stadium (Tula).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.