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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Merelbeke v Harelbeke: numbers & prediction

First Amateur Division · Belgium

Merelbeke

LWWLL
3–0
FT

Harelbeke

LLLWW
Merelbeke 64%Draw 22%Harelbeke 14% Expected goals 2.31 – 1.02
86%
Betarazi pick

Merelbeke or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓

10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1

Value bet: Merelbeke to win @ 1.67 – our chance 64% vs 60% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultMerelbeke to win ✓64% · @1.67
Double chanceMerelbeke or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.26

Merelbeke vs Harelbeke: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Merelbeke welcome Harelbeke for a First Amateur Division fixture on Sunday 20 September (14:00 WAT).

Current form

Merelbeke, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Spouwen-Mopertingen, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.5 conceded per game.

Harelbeke, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Tienen, at home. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Merelbeke 2.3 xG, Harelbeke 1.0 xG – a total near 3.3. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Merelbeke 64%, draw 22%, Harelbeke 14%.
  • Lower-risk option: Merelbeke or draw (86%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.44.
  • Price worth noting: Merelbeke to win @1.67 – the bookmaker implies 60%, our ratings say 64%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Merelbeke or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Merelbeke 2–1 Harelbeke. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Merelbeke64%fair 1.55 · @1.67
Draw22%fair 4.59 · @3.50
Harelbeke14%fair 7.26 · @4.00
3.33Expected goals
2.31Merelbeke xG
1.02Harelbeke xG
63%Both score
65%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
2–010%
1–18%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%

From our goals model: Merelbeke 2.3 – 1.0 Harelbeke expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMerelbeke to win ✓64%1.551.67 ▲
Double chanceMerelbeke or draw ✓86%1.161.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗63%1.591.44
Draw no betMerelbeke (draw no bet) ✓82%1.21–
Asian handicapMerelbeke -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓66%1.51–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85%1.18–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓65%1.55–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓57%1.74–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
First team to scoreMerelbeke to score first ✓67%1.50–
Half-time resultMerelbeke ahead at half-time ✓49%2.05–
Half-time / full-timeHT Merelbeke / FT Merelbeke ✓43%2.30–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.26–

Recent results

Merelbeke – last 6

LWWLLL
13 Sep@ Spouwen-Mopertingen0–1L
6 Sepvs Cercle Brugge II3–1W
28 Aug@ Hoogstraten3–2W
8 Augvs K. Lierse S.K.0–2L
27 Junvs Gent1–6L
26 Apr@ Ninove1–3L
1.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Harelbeke – last 5

LLLWW
13 Sepvs Tienen0–4L
5 Sep@ Heist1–2L
30 Augvs Mandel United0–3L
18 Julvs Kortrijk1–0W
3 Aprvs VW Hamme5–1W
1.4Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Merelbeke and Harelbeke.

Merelbeke vs Harelbeke head-to-head page →

More First Amateur Division predictions

League hub
FT Habay-la-Neuve2 Flénu1 162%1.85X22%3.25216%3.60 2.2–1.1xG 1XHabay-la-Neuve or draw 84%@1.22 ✓
FT Onhaye2 Albert Quévy-Mons5 115%3.75X24%3.40261%1.75 0.6–1.5xG X2Albert Quévy-Mons or draw 85%@1.22 ✓
FT Knokke3 Spouwen-Mopertingen2 156%1.80X22%3.40222%3.60 1.9–1.1xG 1XKnokke or draw 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Tienen1 Roeselare Daisel1 116%3.90X22%3.50261%1.70 1.1–2.2xG X2Roeselare Daisel or draw 84%@1.20 ✓
FT Zelzate0 Houtvenne3 122%2.90X18%3.60260%1.95 1.8–2.9xG GGBoth teams to score 72%@1.44 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Merelbeke vs Harelbeke?

Our pick is Merelbeke or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Merelbeke vs Harelbeke?

On our numbers Merelbeke have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Harelbeke 14%.

How many goals will there be in Merelbeke vs Harelbeke?

We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Merelbeke vs Harelbeke?

Our predicted score is Merelbeke 2–1 Harelbeke, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.

When is Merelbeke vs Harelbeke?

Merelbeke vs Harelbeke (First Amateur Division) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.