Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Caerau (Ely) to win @ 1.83 – our chance 59% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCaerau (Ely) to win ✓59% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.77
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.79
Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely): Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Caerau (Ely) travel to face Cardiff Draconians on Saturday 26 September in the FAW Championship – the ball rolls at 14:30 WAT. In the table, Cardiff Draconians are 14th, in the drop zone, on 12 points after 11 matches; Caerau (Ely) are 4th (among the top four) with 22.
Current form
Cardiff Draconians, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Baglan Dragons, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Caerau (Ely), last 5: WWLLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over llanelli AFC, at home. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cardiff Draconians 1.4 xG, Caerau (Ely) 2.2 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 66% and GG at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cardiff Draconians 26%, draw 14%, Caerau (Ely) 59%.
Price worth noting: Caerau (Ely) to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (66%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cardiff Draconians 1–2 Caerau (Ely). Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cardiff Draconians26%fair 3.79 · @3.20
Draw14%fair 7.04 · @3.90
Caerau (Ely)59%fair 1.68 · @1.83
3.61Expected goals
1.39Cardiff Draconians xG
2.23Caerau (Ely) xG
56%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
0–27%
2–26%
0–16%
From our goals model: Cardiff Draconians 1.4 – 2.2 Caerau (Ely) expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Caerau (Ely) to win✓
59%
1.68
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.77
–
Draw no bet
Caerau (Ely) (draw no bet)✓
69%
1.44
–
Asian handicap
Cardiff Draconians +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
First team to score
Caerau (Ely) to score first✓
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Caerau (Ely) ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Caerau (Ely) / FT Caerau (Ely)✓
36%
2.77
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.79
–
Recent results
Cardiff Draconians – last 6
WWLDLW
12 Sep
vs Baglan Dragons
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs llanelli AFC
4–2
W
15 Aug
vs Pontypridd Town
1–4
L
7 Aug
@ Caerphilly Athletic
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Ynyshir Albions
0–1
L
24 Mar
vs Ynyshir Albions
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Caerau (Ely) – last 6
WWLLWD
11 Sep
vs llanelli AFC
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Treowen Stars
3–2
W
28 Aug
@ Baglan Dragons
1–3
L
21 Aug
vs Swansea University
1–5
L
14 Aug
@ Trethomas Bluebirds
4–2
W
7 Aug
vs Ynyshir Albions
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cardiff Draconians and Caerau (Ely).
What is the prediction for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
On our numbers Cardiff Draconians have a 26% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Caerau (Ely) 59%.
How many goals will there be in Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
Our predicted score is Cardiff Draconians 1–2 Caerau (Ely), the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely)?
Cardiff Draconians vs Caerau (Ely) (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
