Baglan Dragons v Aberystwyth Town Prediction & Expected Goals (24 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAberystwyth Town to win64% · @1.75

Double chanceAberystwyth Town or draw84% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–210% · fair 10.24

Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 24 October the FAW Championship brings Baglan Dragons against Aberystwyth Town. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, Baglan Dragons are 5th, upper half, on 20 points after 13 matches; Aberystwyth Town are 2nd (among the top four) with 25.

Current form

Baglan Dragons, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Llantwit Fardre, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Aberystwyth Town, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 5–1 win over Prestatyn Town, at home. 2.5 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Baglan Dragons 0.8 xG, Aberystwyth Town 1.9 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Baglan Dragons 16%, draw 21%, Aberystwyth Town 64%.
Lower-risk option: Aberystwyth Town or draw (84%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Aberystwyth Town to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 64%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Aberystwyth Town or draw (84%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Baglan Dragons 0–1 Aberystwyth Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Baglan Dragons16%fair 6.45 · @4.00

Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.30

Aberystwyth Town64%fair 1.57 · @1.75

2.75Expected goals

0.82Baglan Dragons xG

1.93Aberystwyth Town xG

55%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–112%

0–212%

1–110%

1–210%

0–38%

0–06%

From our goals model: Baglan Dragons 0.8 – 1.9 Aberystwyth Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Aberystwyth Town to win	64%	1.57	1.75 ▲
Double chance	Aberystwyth Town or draw	84%	1.18	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score	55%	1.81	1.67
Draw no bet	Aberystwyth Town (draw no bet)	80%	1.24	–
Asian handicap	Aberystwyth Town -0.5 (Asian handicap)	63%	1.58	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals	70%	1.42	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals	86%	1.17	–
First team to score	Aberystwyth Town to score first	66%	1.52	–
Half-time result	Aberystwyth Town ahead at half-time	45%	2.21	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Aberystwyth Town / FT Aberystwyth Town	40%	2.48	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2	10%	10.24	–

Baglan Dragons – last 6

WDWLLW

17 Oct	@ Llantwit Fardre	3–1	W
10 Oct	vs Pontypridd Town	1–1	D
2 Oct	@ llanelli AFC	2–1	W
25 Sep	vs Carmarthen Town	1–2	L
12 Sep	@ Cardiff Draconians	1–2	L
4 Sep	vs Afan Lido	2–1	W

1.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

100%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

Aberystwyth Town – last 6

WLWDWW

17 Oct	vs Prestatyn Town	5–1	W
10 Oct	vs Caerau (Ely)	0–1	L
3 Oct	@ Pontypridd Town	3–1	W
25 Sep	vs Swansea University	0–0	D
12 Sep	@ Caerphilly Athletic	3–2	W
31 Aug	vs llanelli AFC	4–0	W

2.5Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Pontypridd Town	13	8	3	2	+13	27
2	Aberystwyth Town	11	8	1	2	+18	25
3	Swansea University	11	7	3	1	+19	24
4	Caerau (Ely)	13	7	1	5	+1	22
5	Baglan Dragons	13	6	2	5	0	20
6	Ynyshir Albions	11	5	4	2	+7	19
7	Afan Lido	14	5	3	6	-2	18
8	Trethomas Bluebirds	13	4	5	4	+3	17
9	Treowen Stars	12	5	2	5	-1	17
10	Carmarthen Town	13	4	3	6	-6	15
11	Pontardawe Town	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Caerphilly Athletic	13	4	2	7	-7	14
13	Newport City	11	3	4	4	+4	13
14	Cardiff Draconians	11	3	3	5	-5	12
15	Llantwit Major	12	3	3	6	-12	12
16	llanelli AFC	14	0	3	11	-31	3

Team

Pts

+13

+18

+19

-2

-1

-6

-1

-7

-5

-12

-31

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

Our pick is Aberystwyth Town or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

On our numbers Baglan Dragons have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Aberystwyth Town 64%.

How many goals will there be in Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

Our predicted score is Baglan Dragons 0–1 Aberystwyth Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town?

Baglan Dragons vs Aberystwyth Town (FAW Championship) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Baglan Dragons v Aberystwyth Town: numbers & prediction