Value bet: Venados FC to win @ 2.28 – our chance 53% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVenados FC to win ✓53% · @2.28
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Venados FC welcome Alebrijes de Oaxaca to Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 26 July (00:00 WAT). In the table, Venados FC are 6th, upper half, on 25 points after 15 matches; Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th (lower half) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Venados FC, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Tlaxcala, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: WLLDL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Correcaminos Uat, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Venados FC 2.0 xG, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 54% and GG at 61%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Venados FC 53%, draw 22%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 25%.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.70.
Price worth noting: Venados FC to win @2.28 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Venados FC 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Venados FC53%fair 1.90 · @2.28
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.40
Alebrijes de Oaxaca25%fair 3.98 · @2.96
3.06Expected goals
1.99Venados FC xG
1.07Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–110%
1–09%
2–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Venados FC 2.0 – 1.1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Venados FC
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
Attack vs Liga De Expansión MX average
+20%
-23%
Goals conceded vs average
+1%
+10%
Our expected goals here
2.43
0.96
Our own ratings from every Liga De Expansión MX result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venados FC to win✓
53%
1.90
2.28 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
1.70
Draw no bet
Venados FC (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Alebrijes de Oaxaca +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
1.10
First team to score
Venados FC to score first✓
62%
1.61
–
Half-time result
Venados FC ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venados FC / FT Venados FC✗
37%
2.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Venados FC – last 6
DWDWLL
19 Apr
@ Tlaxcala
2–2
D
12 Apr
vs Leones Negros UDG
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Atlante FC
4–1
W
21 Mar
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
WLLDLW
18 Apr
@ Correcaminos Uat
3–1
W
11 Apr
vs CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
4 Apr
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
28 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–4
L
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Venados FC and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Venados FC have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 25%.
How many goals will there be in Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Venados FC 1–1 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Venados FC vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 26 July 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
