Monarcas 65%Draw 22%Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12%Expected goals 1.99 – 0.76
65%
Betarazi pick
Monarcas to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonarcas to win ✓65% · @1.50
Double chanceMonarcas or draw ✓88% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.40
Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monarcas welcome Alebrijes de Oaxaca to Estadio Morelos for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 6 September (02:00 WAT). In the table, Monarcas are 3rd, among the top four, on 26 points after 15 matches; Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th (lower half) with 22.
Current form
Monarcas, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Dorados, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: DLWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tapatío, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Monarcas, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monarcas 2.0 xG, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monarcas 65%, draw 22%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12%.
Lower-risk option: Monarcas or draw (88%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monarcas to win (65%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monarcas 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monarcas65%fair 1.53 · @1.50
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @4.00
Alebrijes de Oaxaca12%fair 8.03 · @5.00
2.75Expected goals
1.99Monarcas xG
0.76Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Monarcas 2.0 – 0.8 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monarcas to win✓
65%
1.53
1.50
Double chance
Monarcas or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.75
Draw no bet
Monarcas (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Monarcas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Monarcas to score first✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Monarcas ahead at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas✓
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.40
–
Recent results
Monarcas – last 6
WLWWLW
29 Aug
@ Dorados
1–0
W
21 Aug
vs Correcaminos Uat
1–3
L
15 Aug
@ Cruz Azul Hidalgo
2–1
W
9 Aug
vs Cancún
4–1
W
2 Aug
@ Piratas
0–1
L
26 Jul
vs CA La Paz
4–2
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
DLWWLL
28 Aug
vs Tapatío
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
14 Aug
vs Tepatitlán
1–0
W
6 Aug
@ Tlaxcala
2–0
W
31 Jul
vs Dorados
0–2
L
26 Jul
@ Venados FC
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monarcas and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Monarcas to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Monarcas vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
