Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: CA La Paz to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeones Negros UDG to win ✗42% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78
Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
CA La Paz travel to face Leones Negros UDG on Sunday 13 September in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Jalisco the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Leones Negros UDG are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 15 matches; CA La Paz are 1st (leading the league) with 30. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: WDWWL Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Tapatío, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
CA La Paz, last 5: WWDWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Mineros de Zacatecas, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Mar 2026) it ended CA La Paz 3–0 Leones Negros UDG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 1.7 xG, CA La Paz 1.6 xG – a total near 3.4. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 42%, draw 21%, CA La Paz 37%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: CA La Paz to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 CA La Paz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones Negros UDG42%fair 2.40 · @2.00
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.50
CA La Paz37%fair 2.68 · @3.10
3.36Expected goals
1.73Leones Negros UDG xG
1.63CA La Paz xG
65%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
2–18%
1–28%
2–27%
1–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.7 – 1.6 CA La Paz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 21% and CA La Paz 37%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 CA La Paz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz?
Leones Negros UDG vs CA La Paz (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
