Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultMonarcas to win ✓63% · @1.67
Double chanceMonarcas or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗63% · @1.60
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗67% · fair 1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.37
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Monarcas welcome Leones Negros UDG to Estadio Morelos for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 20 September (02:00 WAT). In the table, Monarcas are 3rd, among the top four, on 26 points after 15 matches; Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (among the top four) with 30.
Current form
Monarcas, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Mineros de Zacatecas, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: DWDWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with CA La Paz, at home. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours Monarcas, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.8 for Leones Negros UDG.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended Leones Negros UDG 2–0 Monarcas.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monarcas 2.4 xG, Leones Negros UDG 1.1 xG – a total near 3.4. That is an open game on paper: 67% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monarcas 63%, draw 23%, Leones Negros UDG 13%.
Lower-risk option: Monarcas or draw (87%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Monarcas or draw (87%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.15, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monarcas 2–1 Leones Negros UDG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monarcas63%fair 1.58 · @1.67
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.80
Leones Negros UDG13%fair 7.45 · @4.00
3.44Expected goals
2.36Monarcas xG
1.08Leones Negros UDG xG
63%Both score
67%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
3–18%
1–08%
3–07%
From our goals model: Monarcas 2.4 – 1.1 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Monarcas or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Leones Negros UDG 13%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 67% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 2–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG?
Monarcas vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
