Cancún 62%Draw 24%Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14%Expected goals 1.93 – 0.82
86%
Betarazi pick
Cancún or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Cancún to win @ 1.73 – our chance 62% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCancún to win ✓62% · @1.73
Double chanceCancún or draw ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.25
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 20 September the Liga De Expansión MX brings Cancún against Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Kick-off: 02:00 WAT. In the table, Cancún are 5th, upper half, on 25 points after 15 matches; Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th (lower half) with 22. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Cancún, last 5: DDWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Dorados, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.2 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alebrijes de Oaxaca, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Durango, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cancún 1.9 xG, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cancún 62%, draw 24%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14%.
Lower-risk option: Cancún or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Cancún to win @1.73 – the bookmaker implies 58%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Cancún or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cancún 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cancún62%fair 1.60 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.50
Alebrijes de Oaxaca14%fair 7.17 · @4.00
2.75Expected goals
1.93Cancún xG
0.82Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–06%
From our goals model: Cancún 1.9 – 0.8 Alebrijes de Oaxaca expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cancún to win✓
62%
1.60
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Cancún or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.75
Draw no bet
Cancún (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Cancún -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
First team to score
Cancún to score first✓
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Cancún ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cancún / FT Cancún✗
41%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.25
–
Recent results
Cancún – last 6
DDWLWW
16 Sep
@ Dorados
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Correcaminos Uat
2–2
D
6 Sep
vs Cruz Azul Hidalgo
6–0
W
28 Aug
vs CA La Paz
1–2
L
23 Aug
@ Piratas
1–0
W
16 Aug
vs Durango
2–0
W
2.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
WLDLWW
11 Sep
vs Durango
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Monarcas
1–4
L
28 Aug
vs Tapatío
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–2
L
14 Aug
vs Tepatitlán
1–0
W
6 Aug
@ Tlaxcala
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cancún and Alebrijes de Oaxaca.
What is the prediction for Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our pick is Cancún or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
On our numbers Cancún have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Alebrijes de Oaxaca 14%.
How many goals will there be in Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Our predicted score is Cancún 1–0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?
Cancún vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
