Value bet: Venados FC to win @ 1.85 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVenados FC to win ✗59% · @1.85
Double chanceEither team to win ✗85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓69% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.06
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones Negros UDG travel to face Venados FC on Sunday 11 October in the Liga De Expansión MX, with Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero the venue – the ball rolls at 00:00 WAT. In the table, Venados FC are 6th, upper half, on 25 points after 15 matches; Leones Negros UDG are 2nd (among the top four) with 30.
Current form
Venados FC, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over CA La Paz, away. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: WWLDW Their latest outing: 6–3 win over Dorados, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Head to head
When they last met (12 Apr 2026) it ended Venados FC 2–1 Leones Negros UDG.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Venados FC 2.5 xG, Leones Negros UDG 1.6 xG – a total near 4.1. That is an open game on paper: 77% for three or more goals, 69% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Venados FC 59%, draw 15%, Leones Negros UDG 26%.
GG/NG: GG (69%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Venados FC to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (69%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Venados FC 2–1 Leones Negros UDG. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Venados FC59%fair 1.70 · @1.85
Draw15%fair 6.59 · @3.75
Leones Negros UDG26%fair 3.82 · @3.25
4.09Expected goals
2.48Venados FC xG
1.61Leones Negros UDG xG
69%Both score
77%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
3–17%
1–17%
2–27%
3–26%
1–25%
From our goals model: Venados FC 2.5 – 1.6 Leones Negros UDG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
On our numbers Venados FC have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Leones Negros UDG 26%.
How many goals will there be in Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 77% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Our predicted score is Venados FC 2–1 Leones Negros UDG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG?
Venados FC vs Leones Negros UDG (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Carlos Iturralde Rivero.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
