Double chanceLeones Negros UDG or draw ✓86% · @1.05
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.43
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.71
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Leones Negros UDG welcome Tepatitlán to Estadio Jalisco for a Liga De Expansión MX fixture on Sunday 1 November (19:00 WAT). In the table, Leones Negros UDG are 2nd, among the top four, on 30 points after 15 matches; Tepatitlán are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7. There are 23 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Leones Negros UDG, last 5: WLDWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Mineros de Zacatecas, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Tepatitlán, last 5: LLLDW Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Cancún, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Leones Negros UDG, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.7 for Tepatitlán.
Head to head
When they last met (15 Feb 2026) it ended Leones Negros UDG 0–0 Tepatitlán.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones Negros UDG 2.5 xG, Tepatitlán 1.1 xG – a total near 3.6. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 70% and GG at 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones Negros UDG 69%, draw 17%, Tepatitlán 14%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Leones Negros UDG to win (69%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones Negros UDG 2–1 Tepatitlán. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones Negros UDG69%fair 1.44 · @1.20
Draw17%fair 5.98 · @6.00
Tepatitlán14%fair 7.15 · @10.00
3.61Expected goals
2.54Leones Negros UDG xG
1.07Tepatitlán xG
60%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–07%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 2.5 – 1.1 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Leones Negros UDG to win with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 69% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Tepatitlán 14%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 2–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
