Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.19
Penarol vs Cerro Largo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 1 August the Primera División Apertura brings Penarol against Cerro Largo. Kick-off: 22:30 WAT. In the table, Penarol are 5th, upper half, on 22 points after 13 matches; Cerro Largo are 15th (in the drop zone) with 9. There are 13 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Penarol, last 5: WDWLW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Boston River, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Cerro Largo, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Central Espanol, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Penarol, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.3 for Cerro Largo.
Head to head
When they last met (12 May 2026) it ended Cerro Largo 2–3 Penarol.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penarol 1.7 xG, Cerro Largo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penarol 62%, draw 23%, Cerro Largo 15%.
GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.70.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penarol 1–0 Cerro Largo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penarol62%fair 1.62 · @1.56
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.70
Cerro Largo15%fair 6.62 · @5.60
2.36Expected goals
1.70Penarol xG
0.65Cerro Largo xG
49%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Penarol 1.7 – 0.7 Cerro Largo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penarol
Cerro Largo
Attack vs Primera División Apertura average
+24%
-22%
Goals conceded vs average
-29%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.66
0.59
Our own ratings from every Primera División Apertura result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
On our numbers Penarol have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cerro Largo 15%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
Our predicted score is Penarol 1–0 Cerro Largo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Penarol vs Cerro Largo?
Penarol vs Cerro Largo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 1 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
