Value bet: Balzan FC to win @ 3.50 – our chance 48% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +67%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBalzan FC to win ✗48% · @3.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.27
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.84
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.47
Mosta vs Balzan FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 23 August the Premier League brings Mosta against Balzan FC at Centenary Stadium. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Mosta are 9th on 15 points after 12 matches; Balzan FC are 10th with 14. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Mosta, last 5: WWDLD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Hamrun Spartans, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Balzan FC, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Marsaxlokk, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mosta 1.0 xG, Balzan FC 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 46%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mosta 31%, draw 21%, Balzan FC 48%.
Price worth noting: Balzan FC to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (56%, odds 1.80). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mosta 0–1 Balzan FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mosta31%fair 3.25 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.50
Balzan FC48%fair 2.09 · @3.50
2.28Expected goals
0.97Mosta xG
1.31Balzan FC xG
46%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Mosta 1.0 – 1.3 Balzan FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Balzan FC to win✗
48%
2.09
3.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
–
Draw no bet
Balzan FC (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.64
–
Asian handicap
Mosta +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Balzan FC to score first✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Balzan FC / FT Balzan FC✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.47
–
Recent results
Mosta – last 6
WWDLDW
17 Aug
@ Hamrun Spartans
2–0
W
10 May
@ Naxxar Lions
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Birkirkara
1–1
D
24 Apr
@ Hibernians
0–2
L
19 Apr
vs Sliema Wanderers
2–2
D
15 Apr
vs Zabbar St. Patrick
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Balzan FC – last 6
DWWWLW
14 Aug
vs Marsaxlokk
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Melita
2–0
W
6 Apr
@ Sirens
1–0
W
10 Mar
@ Fgura United
2–1
W
22 Feb
vs St. Andrews
1–4
L
15 Feb
@ Marsa
4–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mosta and Balzan FC.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Mosta vs Balzan FC?
On our numbers Mosta have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Balzan FC 48%.
How many goals will there be in Mosta vs Balzan FC?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mosta vs Balzan FC?
Our predicted score is Mosta 0–1 Balzan FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Mosta vs Balzan FC?
Mosta vs Balzan FC (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Centenary Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
