Sao Joao del Rei 14%Draw 25%Paracatu 61%Expected goals 0.77 – 1.84
86%
Betarazi pick
Paracatu or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Paracatu to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultParacatu to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceParacatu or draw ✗86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.41
Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sao Joao del Rei welcome Paracatu for a Mineiro 3 fixture on Friday 9 October (22:30 WAT). In the table, Sao Joao del Rei are 5th on 3 points after 3 matches; Paracatu are 1st with 7.
Current form
Sao Joao del Rei, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Betim 2, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Paracatu, last 3: WWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Funorte, at home. 3.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Paracatu, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.0 for Sao Joao del Rei.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sao Joao del Rei 0.8 xG, Paracatu 1.8 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 44%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sao Joao del Rei 14%, draw 25%, Paracatu 61%.
Lower-risk option: Paracatu or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Price worth noting: Paracatu to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Paracatu or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sao Joao del Rei 0–1 Paracatu. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sao Joao del Rei14%fair 7.32 · @3.70
Draw25%fair 4.02 · @3.30
Paracatu61%fair 1.63 · @1.85
2.61Expected goals
0.77Sao Joao del Rei xG
1.84Paracatu xG
44%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–114%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sao Joao del Rei 0.8 – 1.8 Paracatu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Paracatu to win✗
61%
1.63
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Paracatu or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
–
Draw no bet
Paracatu (draw no bet)✗
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
Paracatu -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
First team to score
Paracatu to score first✗
65%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Paracatu ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Paracatu / FT Paracatu✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.41
–
Recent results
Sao Joao del Rei – last 3
LLW
2 Oct
vs Betim 2
0–1
L
26 Sep
@ Funorte
0–1
L
18 Sep
vs Araxá
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Paracatu – last 3
WWW
3 Oct
vs Funorte
3–0
W
26 Sep
@ Araxá
2–1
W
19 Sep
vs Siderurgica
5–0
W
3.3Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Joao del Rei and Paracatu.
What is the prediction for Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
Our pick is Paracatu or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
On our numbers Sao Joao del Rei have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Paracatu 61%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
Our predicted score is Sao Joao del Rei 0–1 Paracatu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu?
Sao Joao del Rei vs Paracatu (Mineiro 3) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
