Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 61%Draw 24%Čelik 15%Expected goals 1.87 – 0.84
85%
Betarazi pick
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo to win @ 1.85 – our chance 61% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultZeljeznicar Sarajevo to win ✗61% · @1.85
Double chanceZeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw ✓85% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.24
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo welcome Čelik to Stadion Grbavica for a Premijer Liga fixture on Friday 18 September (19:00 WAT). In the table, Zeljeznicar Sarajevo are 6th, lower half, on 13 points after 13 matches; Čelik are 8th (in the drop zone) with 11. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo, last 5: DWWLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sloga Doboj, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Čelik, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Radnik Bijeljina, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.9 xG, Čelik 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 61%, draw 24%, Čelik 15%.
Lower-risk option: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw (85%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo to win @1.85 – the bookmaker implies 54%, our ratings say 61%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw (85%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–0 Čelik. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo61%fair 1.65 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @3.10
Čelik15%fair 6.55 · @3.90
2.71Expected goals
1.87Zeljeznicar Sarajevo xG
0.84Čelik xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1.9 – 0.8 Čelik expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo to win✗
61%
1.65
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.80
Draw no bet
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw no bet)
80%
1.25
–
Asian handicap
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo to score first
64%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Zeljeznicar Sarajevo / FT Zeljeznicar Sarajevo✗
39%
2.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.24
–
Recent results
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo – last 6
DWWLDL
13 Sep
@ Sloga Doboj
1–1
D
9 Sep
vs FK Sarajevo
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Velež
3–1
W
2 Sep
@ Borac Banja Luka
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Siroki Brijeg
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Zrinjski
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Čelik – last 6
WLDWLL
11 Sep
vs Radnik Bijeljina
3–2
W
5 Sep
@ BSK Banja Luka
2–3
L
1 Sep
@ Sloga Doboj
0–0
D
28 Aug
vs Velež
3–0
W
23 Aug
@ Borac Banja Luka
0–2
L
14 Aug
vs Siroki Brijeg
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Zeljeznicar Sarajevo and Čelik.
What is the prediction for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik?
Our pick is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik?
On our numbers Zeljeznicar Sarajevo have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Čelik 15%.
How many goals will there be in Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik?
Our predicted score is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1–0 Čelik, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik?
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Čelik (Premijer Liga) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Grbavica.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
