Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Verl to win @ 1.75 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVerl to win ✗65% · @1.75
Double chanceVerl or draw ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.50
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.25
Verl vs Fortuna Köln: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:00 WAT, Saturday 29 August: Verl v Fortuna Köln in the 3. Liga, played at Sportclub Arena. In the table, Verl are 17th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Fortuna Köln are 19th (in the drop zone) with 10. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Verl, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Hamburger SV, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 3.2 conceded per game.
Fortuna Köln, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Alemannia Aachen, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Fortuna Köln, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Verl.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Verl 2.3 xG, Fortuna Köln 1.1 xG – a total near 3.3. That is an open game on paper: 63% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Verl 65%, draw 19%, Fortuna Köln 16%.
Lower-risk option: Verl or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Verl to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 65%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Verl or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.19, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Verl 2–1 Fortuna Köln. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Verl65%fair 1.54 · @1.75
Draw19%fair 5.14 · @3.95
Fortuna Köln16%fair 6.34 · @4.10
3.34Expected goals
2.29Verl xG
1.05Fortuna Köln xG
61%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–09%
1–19%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Verl 2.3 – 1.1 Fortuna Köln expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Verl to win✗
65%
1.54
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Verl or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.50
Draw no bet
Verl (draw no bet)✗
80%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Verl -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.60
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
First team to score
Verl to score first
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Verl ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Verl / FT Verl✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.25
–
Recent results
Verl – last 6
LLLLWL
24 Aug
vs Hamburger SV
0–3
L
15 Aug
vs MSV Duisburg
2–4
L
9 Aug
@ Alemannia Aachen
1–4
L
1 Aug
@ RB Leipzig
0–4
L
26 Jul
vs Bremer SV
6–1
W
18 Jul
@ VfL Wolfsburg
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
3.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Fortuna Köln – last 6
DLWWWW
15 Aug
vs Alemannia Aachen
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach
0–1
L
1 Aug
vs Kickers Offenbach
3–0
W
25 Jul
@ VVV Venlo
1–0
W
18 Jul
vs Borussia M'gladbach II
1–0
W
15 Jul
@ Eintracht Trier
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Verl and Fortuna Köln.
Our pick is Verl or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
On our numbers Verl have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Fortuna Köln 16%.
How many goals will there be in Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
Our predicted score is Verl 2–1 Fortuna Köln, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Verl vs Fortuna Köln?
Verl vs Fortuna Köln (3. Liga) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Sportclub Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
