La Luz 53%Draw 29%Tacuarembo 18%Expected goals 1.29 – 0.67
67%
Betarazi pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
Picks by market
ResultLa Luz to win ✓53% · @1.85
Double chanceLa Luz or draw ✓82% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.49
La Luz vs Tacuarembo: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
19:00 WAT, Monday 13 July: La Luz v Tacuarembo in the Segunda División. In the table, La Luz are 9th, lower half, on 34 points after 25 matches; Tacuarembo are 13th (in the drop zone) with 26.
Current form
La Luz, last 5: LDWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Plaza Colonia, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Tacuarembo, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Cerrito, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (17 Mar 2026) it ended Tacuarembo 1–1 La Luz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give La Luz 1.3 xG, Tacuarembo 0.7 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 67%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – La Luz 53%, draw 29%, Tacuarembo 18%.
Lower-risk option: La Luz or draw (82%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: NG (50%) at 1.50.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (67%, odds 1.42). Most likely score in line with that pick: La Luz 1–0 Tacuarembo. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
La Luz53%fair 1.89 · @1.85
Draw29%fair 3.42 · @3.10
Tacuarembo18%fair 5.56 · @4.20
1.96Expected goals
1.29La Luz xG
0.67Tacuarembo xG
50%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
0–014%
1–112%
2–012%
0–19%
2–18%
From our goals model: La Luz 1.3 – 0.7 Tacuarembo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
La Luz
Tacuarembo
Attack vs Segunda División average
-6%
-28%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
+3%
Our expected goals here
1.26
0.71
Our own ratings from every Segunda División result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win La Luz vs Tacuarembo?
On our numbers La Luz have a 53% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Tacuarembo 18%.
How many goals will there be in La Luz vs Tacuarembo?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for La Luz vs Tacuarembo?
Our predicted score is La Luz 1–0 Tacuarembo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is La Luz vs Tacuarembo?
La Luz vs Tacuarembo (Segunda División) kicks off on Monday 13 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
