Independiente del Valle 78%Draw 16%Manta FC 6%Expected goals 2.30 – 0.53
63%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultIndependiente del Valle to win ✓78% · @1.14
Double chanceIndependiente del Valle or draw ✓94% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.20
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.12
Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Manta FC travel to face Independiente del Valle on Thursday 30 July in the Copa Ecuador, with Estadio Banco Guayaquil the venue – the ball rolls at 01:00 WAT.
Current form
Independiente del Valle, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Orense SC, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Manta FC, last 5: LDLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Tecnico Universitario, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game.
Momentum favours Independiente del Valle, collecting 3.0 points per game to 0.3 for Manta FC.
Head to head
When they last met (4 Jul 2026) it ended Independiente del Valle 4–0 Manta FC. The last 2 head-to-heads: Independiente del Valle 2 wins, Manta FC 0, draws 0. Those games averaged 3.0 goals.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Independiente del Valle 2.3 xG, Manta FC 0.5 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 58%, GG 50%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Independiente del Valle 78%, draw 16%, Manta FC 6%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.20.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 50%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (63%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Independiente del Valle 2–0 Manta FC. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Independiente del Valle78%fair 1.28 · @1.14
Draw16%fair 6.39 · @6.00
Manta FC6%fair 15.78 · @16.00
2.82Expected goals
2.30Independiente del Valle xG
0.53Manta FC xG
50%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–016%
1–014%
3–012%
2–18%
1–17%
4–07%
From our goals model: Independiente del Valle 2.3 – 0.5 Manta FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente del Valle to win✓
78%
1.28
1.14
Double chance
Independiente del Valle or draw✓
94%
1.07
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
2.20 ▲
Draw no bet
Independiente del Valle (draw no bet)✓
92%
1.08
–
Asian handicap
Independiente del Valle -1 (Asian handicap)
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
1.50
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
1.62
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
1.25
First team to score
Independiente del Valle to score first✓
77%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Independiente del Valle ahead at half-time✗
56%
1.80
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente del Valle / FT Independiente del Valle✗
What is the prediction for Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC?
On our numbers Independiente del Valle have a 78% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Manta FC 6%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC?
Our predicted score is Independiente del Valle 2–0 Manta FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC?
Independiente del Valle vs Manta FC (Copa Ecuador) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Banco Guayaquil.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
LDU de Quito6
Leones del Norte0