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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

LDU de Quito v Leones del Norte: numbers & prediction

Copa Ecuador · Ecuador · Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

LDU de Quito

WDLLD
6–0
FT

Leones del Norte

WDWDW
LDU de Quito 59%Draw 25%Leones del Norte 15% Expected goals 1.53 – 0.74
79%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗

9/10Rating
1.22Odds

Picks by market

ResultLDU de Quito to win ✓59% · @1.50
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.57
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.30

LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

LDU de Quito welcome Leones del Norte to Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado for a Copa Ecuador fixture on Thursday 30 July (21:00 WAT).

Current form

LDU de Quito, last 5: WDLLD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Barcelona SC, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Leones del Norte, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Delfin SC, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Leones del Norte, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.0 for LDU de Quito.

Head to head

When they last met (18 Jul 2026) it ended LDU de Quito 0–1 Leones del Norte. The last 2 head-to-heads: LDU de Quito 1 win, Leones del Norte 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 1.5 goals.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give LDU de Quito 1.5 xG, Leones del Norte 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 41%, GG 49%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – LDU de Quito 59%, draw 25%, Leones del Norte 15%.
  • GG/NG: NG (51%) at 1.57.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (79%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: LDU de Quito 1–0 Leones del Norte. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

LDU de Quito59%fair 1.68 · @1.50
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @3.50
Leones del Norte15%fair 6.49 · @6.50
2.27Expected goals
1.53LDU de Quito xG
0.74Leones del Norte xG
49%Both score
41%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–18%

From our goals model: LDU de Quito 1.5 – 0.7 Leones del Norte expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLDU de Quito to win ✓59%1.681.50
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✓85%1.181.06
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓51%1.961.57
Draw no betLDU de Quito (draw no bet) ✓79%1.26–
Asian handicapLeones del Norte +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗70%1.42–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓66%1.511.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗59%1.691.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗79%1.271.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗92%1.09–
First team to scoreLDU de Quito to score first ✓61%1.65–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗45%2.20–
Half-time / full-timeHT LDU de Quito / FT LDU de Quito ✓34%2.94–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16%6.30–

Recent results

LDU de Quito – last 6

WDLLDD
27 Jul@ Barcelona SC1–0W
23 Jul@ Manta FC1–1D
18 Julvs Leones del Norte0–1L
15 Jul@ Universidad Catolica0–1L
12 Julvs Libertad0–0D
9 Jul@ Ind. Juniors1–1D
0.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5

Leones del Norte – last 6

WDWDWW
26 Jul@ Delfin SC1–0W
23 Julvs Guayaquil City FC1–1D
18 Jul@ LDU de Quito1–0W
15 Julvs Deportivo Cuenca1–1D
10 Julvs Universidad Catolica1–0W
4 Jul@ Libertad3–1W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

18 Jul 2026LDU de Quito v Leones del Norte0–1
18 Mar 2026Leones del Norte v LDU de Quito0–2
LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte head-to-head page →

More Copa Ecuador predictions

League hub
FT Independiente del Valle1 Manta FC0 178%1.14X16%6.0026%16.00 2.3–0.5xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 63%@1.62 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?

On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Leones del Norte 15%.

How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?

We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 41% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?

Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 1–0 Leones del Norte, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.

When is LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte?

LDU de Quito vs Leones del Norte (Copa Ecuador) kicks off on Thursday 30 July 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.